Not all geopolitical shocks are inflationary
Geopolitical tensions are often seen as a source of inflation. But this is only part of the story. This column shows that geopolitical shocks transmitted
Beyond flows: How natural gas supply risk fuels inflation
Europe’s output losses proved limited following the 2022 cutoff of Russian gas flows, yet inflation rose sharply. This column uses weather variation and gas-market events
How minimum wages reshape firms and their productivity from within
How far can minimum wages rise without damaging jobs and output? This column uses evidence from France to show that firms respond not only by
Beyond trade diversion: How the US-China trade war reshaped global production
Trade wars do not simply redirect exports; they also reshape the costs of production, disrupt supplier-customer relationships, and trigger adjustments within multinational firms’ global affiliate
How exchange rate policy reshapes global supply chains and productivity growth
Global current account imbalances are widening again. This column argues that currency undervaluation, supported by reserve accumulation under capital controls, can permanently reshape industrial structure
Inside the automotive supply chain: Empirical evidence from Italian business-to-business trade data
Europe’s automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation. This column uses firm-to-firm data to map the Italian automotive supply chain, covering both direct suppliers and
The price elasticity of US shale oil supply: Insights from a natural experiment
The 2026 Iran war provides a natural experiment that allows model-free estimation of the price elasticity of US shale oil supply. This column argues that
Firms slice up global production to protect their knowhow
Imitation is a first-order concern for enterprises operating global production processes. Firms routinely source knowledge-intensive inputs from many countries, including those with weak intellectual property
The scramble for critical minerals: An old curse in a new world
Lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements are reshaping global trade and great-power politics in ways reminiscent of the earlier scramble for natural resources.
AI feedback loops and the conditions for explosive growth
If frontier AI models can be used to develop their next models, this may lead to an ‘intelligence explosion’ and give a large boost to
