Filtering labour market data optimally to detect recessions early and accurately
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market
Europe must not waste its currency moment
Escalating geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and volatile policy shifts are reshaping the rules of global commerce and finance and bringing the dominance of the US
The making of a supply shock: Tariff propagation via domestic production networks
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered a discussion of whether import tariffs can reduce trade deficits or boost certain industries. This column develops a model,
The importance of information for tax design: Evidence from the French wealth tax
Many countries are considering introducing or reforming their wealth tax policies. This column studies the effects of a French wealth tax reform, which reduced reporting
Default to mum: How institutions quietly shape gender roles in parenting
Mothers continue to shoulder the majority of childcare responsibilities even in dual-earner households, contributing to gender gaps in earnings, labour force participation, and career advancement.
Dealing with Trump: Dos and don’ts
Trade negotiations between the US and the EU are entering a crucial stage. This column argues that, faced with a highly uncertain geopolitical situation, the
A practical guide to running social media experiments
As social media platforms become ever more ubiquitous, policymakers are grappling with how to counter their effects on political attitudes and electoral outcomes, addiction and
Micro and macro cost-price dynamics in normal times and during inflation surges
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a
How French firms navigated the inflation surge: Lessons for expectations and decision making
As inflation surged globally, economists and policymakers focused their attention on the expectations of households and financial markets – but relatively little was known about
Tariffs and retaliation: A macroeconomic analysis
Implementation of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on the US’ trading partners would have far-reaching consequences for international trade patterns and the US and global economies.
