Gold climbed on Thursday after the Federal Reserve warned of rising inflation and labor market risks fuelling economic uncertainty, while investors awaited the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks this weekend. Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,409.76 an ounce, as of 0223 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.7% to $3,416.70. “I think it’s mostly a […]
Sweeping US tariff increases in 2025 are upending global trade. This column draws on new data and simulations to show that, even with partial suspensions, the measures are set to trigger sharp contractions in trade, significant welfare losses (especially for the US), and major disruptions to global supply chains. Direct trade between the US and […]
In the event of dysfunction in dollar funding markets, the Federal Reserve can supply liquidity through standing central bank swaps. This column considers a scenario in which the Fed declines to extend such credit. It argues that 14 major central banks hold roughly $1.9 trillion in US safe assets. They could form a dollar coalition […]
With the prospect of far-reaching decoupling of goods trade between China and the US, fears of deflection of Chinese exports to third markets have returned. This column examines the factual record on the frequency of, and foreign government response to, Chinese trade deflection during the first US-China trade war. The authors find that trade deflection […]
