The 2025 US tariff increases varied significantly across most economies. This column argues that the economic impact of these tariffs will also not be uniform. Using a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model, it estimates that US real GDP will decrease by around 4%, and that larger adverse impacts are expected in Canada and Mexico. […]
Sweeping US tariff increases in 2025 are upending global trade. This column draws on new data and simulations to show that, even with partial suspensions, the measures are set to trigger sharp contractions in trade, significant welfare losses (especially for the US), and major disruptions to global supply chains. Direct trade between the US and […]
Tariff escalation between China and the US will result in decoupling of goods trade, raising fears that Chinese exports destined to the US market in 2024 will be redirected or deflected to third markets. Fearful of intensified competition from Chinese products, some business associations and officials are calling for pre-emptive measures by importing governments. This […]
