25% inflation, 50 years on
UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence
The Federal Reserve, the new administration, and the outlook for the economy and monetary policy
The new US administration has made the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking more complicated both because of the elevated uncertainty regarding administration policies and because of
How Donald Trump should have tackled the US trade deficit
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association
Revisiting the consequences of job displacement
Decades of research have confirmed that job displacement causes significant and persistent earnings losses. This column presents new evidence from workers displaced during firm closures
Dollar rises versus euro and yen before US economic data
It also sees the European Central Bank as having concluded its easing cycle. The dollar edged up against the euro and the yen, but remained
Filtering labour market data optimally to detect recessions early and accurately
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market
The post-pandemic disinflation: Low sacrifice, high prices
By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained
From coal dust to green jobs: The employment imperative in the low-carbon transition
The last coal mine in Wałbrzych, Poland closed in the 1990s, leaving a region that had long relied on mining facing severe economic disruption. Unemployment
Households’ subjective expectations: Disagreement, common drivers, and reaction to aggregate shocks
Understanding how households interpret macroeconomic policy is vital to the effectiveness of central banks. This column demonstrates that the reactions of individual households frequently contradict
The rise and retreat of US inflation: An update
During the pandemic, annual CPI inflation in the US rose sharply to a peak of 9% in June 2022. This column argues that the rise
