The new US administration has made the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking more complicated both because of the elevated uncertainty regarding administration policies and because of the extraordinary political pressure put on the central bank. This column describes how, thus far, the Fed has followed a cautious path for policy, waiting for more information on policy […]
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association with a weaker dollar, appears to be the right way for the US to improve its trade balance. In addition, the US should pursue an outcome in which there is […]
Decades of research have confirmed that job displacement causes significant and persistent earnings losses. This column presents new evidence from workers displaced during firm closures in West Germany between 2000 and 2005 which suggests that these losses are in fact much more heterogeneous than previously documented, and that the large average losses documented in previous […]
It also sees the European Central Bank as having concluded its easing cycle. The dollar edged up against the euro and the yen, but remained within striking distance of Friday’s lows, after weak U.S. jobs data boosted bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and triggered a sharp selloff in the greenback. Investors are awaiting services […]
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction […]
By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained low, the combination of which generated historically low sacrifice ratios (output losses per inflation reduction). These standard metrics for success, however, ignore adjustments in the price level, which rose by […]
The last coal mine in Wałbrzych, Poland closed in the 1990s, leaving a region that had long relied on mining facing severe economic disruption. Unemployment soared, local businesses suffered, and an entire way of life built around the coal industry seemed to disappear overnight. By 2000, only one-tenth of the jobs lost in the mining […]
Understanding how households interpret macroeconomic policy is vital to the effectiveness of central banks. This column demonstrates that the reactions of individual households frequently contradict standard theoretical playbooks. Using euro area survey data, the authors find that households interpret policy through a lens shaped by recent crises – such as the energy shock following Russia’s […]
During the pandemic, annual CPI inflation in the US rose sharply to a peak of 9% in June 2022. This column argues that the rise of inflation can be explained with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations, the tightness of the labour market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, and […]
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
