The post-pandemic disinflation: Low sacrifice, high prices
By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained
The (projected) cost of Russian aggression
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked an end to stability in Europe. This column analyses the economic effects for Ukraine, Russia, as well as
Stanley Fischer and the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics: A tribute
Stanley Fischer, the World Bank’s chief economist from January 1988 to August 1990, passed away on May 31, 2025. Stan Fischer’s immense professional contributions to
Europe must not waste its currency moment
Escalating geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and volatile policy shifts are reshaping the rules of global commerce and finance and bringing the dominance of the US
The macroeconomic effects of introducing a central bank digital currency
Central bank digital currencies are gaining traction as a potential innovation in central banking, with numerous countries considering their implementation. However, given the limited real-world
Climate change, firms, and aggregate productivity
Policy debates around climate change frequently focus on the trade-off between the near-term costs of reducing carbon emissions and the long-term benefits of mitigating climate
Households’ subjective expectations: Disagreement, common drivers, and reaction to aggregate shocks
Understanding how households interpret macroeconomic policy is vital to the effectiveness of central banks. This column demonstrates that the reactions of individual households frequently contradict
The value added tax paradox in resource-dependent economies
The introduction of value added taxes has been widely perceived as successful, boosting government revenue and stimulating industrialisation. This contrasts with the empirical finding that,
Keeping an eye on budgetary forecasts: The new Forecast Tracker of the Secretariat of the European Fiscal Board
Forecasts underpinning budgetary plans have a well-documented impact on fiscal performance especially when policymakers view the world through rosy lenses. Combined with inertia in the
Geopolitical risk in the euro area
Geopolitical risk is a key concern for the euro area, yet most available measures reflect a US perspective. This column introduces a new indicator of
