Why the post-pandemic US immigration surge barely moved inflation
The US experienced a large immigration surge between 2021 and 2024, which coincided with a period of high and then falling inflation. This column shows
Size versus allocation in capital market development: evidence from pension funds and insurance companies
EU capital markets stay small as savings sit in deposits, making insurers and pension funds pivotal if portfolios shift into productive assets. The European Union’s
Cheaper machines, costlier buildings: The drag on long-run growth
The steady decline in the relative price of equipment has long been seen as a primary engine of long-run growth. This column documents a quieter,
Europe suffers not so much from a ‘flight’ of savings as from insufficient allocation to equities
Europe exports a large surplus of savings outside the continent each year. This column argues that this should not be interpreted as a capital ‘flight’:
The global minimum tax: More winners than losers – even without the US
A landmark shift in the international corporate tax system is taking shape. The introduction of a 15% global minimum tax aims to reduce profit shifting
The inefficient pricing of news
The main obstacle to market efficiency is whether investors can read, process, and quickly extract genuinely new information from articles. This column uses large language
Industrial policy, tariffs, and the return of global imbalances
Has the rise of industrial policy driven an increase in global current account imbalances? Can tariffs fix them? This column revisits these questions. Looking at
Global economic outlook hangs in balance between geopolitical headwinds and AI boost, WEF Chief Economists’ Outlook warns
Chief economists already rank the current closure duration of the Strait of Hormuz as significantly more disruptive than last year’s tariff turmoil. The global economic
Can we even measure progress? The state of development data
Imagine you’ve just been appointed Minister of Finance. Tomorrow morning, you must decide where to build schools and clinics, how much to borrow, and which
Oil shocks, remittances, and growth: the data behind South Asia’s energy vulnerability
Consider a family whose income has suddenly fallen short of covering basic needs. Fuel costs have risen, reducing what the household budget can afford, and
