The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: A preliminary assessment
The world is adjusting to President Trump’s second ‘first hundred days’ in office. This column introduces a new CEPR eBook in which over 50 experts
Quantifying global debt risks amid high and rising public debt
As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and
The Great Wall of Chinese goods: The effect of tariff-induced re-rerouting on euro area consumer prices
Tariffs affect both supply and demand, possibly with contrasting effects on prices. This column shows that renewed US-China tensions could redirect Chinese exports to the
Anatomy of the Phillips curve
The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and real economic activity over the business cycle. This column challenges the notion that the Phillips curve
Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA
The global economy is facing heightened uncertainty, clouding economic forecasts. In our recently launched April 2025 Middle East and North Africa Economic Update , we report that
How French firms navigated the inflation surge: Lessons for expectations and decision making
As inflation surged globally, economists and policymakers focused their attention on the expectations of households and financial markets – but relatively little was known about
Fed communication for all – but understood by few
Central banks use communication to influence inflation expectations, with varying effectiveness. This column examines how professional forecasters and households respond to inflationary pressure warnings in
Why monetary policy should crack down harder during high inflation
The recent surge in inflation has led to a significant increase in the frequency of price changes. This column argues that price flexibility has an
The high price of the fight against inflation: The case of the euro area
The fight against inflation has largely been won in the euro area, after a sharp but short-lived inflation episode over 2021-2023. This column argues that
Measurement errors and missing inflation persistence before World War I
Economic historians widely acknowledge that historical price data are measured with error. This column collects pre-WWI inflation data from 15 countries and uses instrumental variables
