Rational inattention and information provision experiments
Surveys with information provision experiments have become popular in economics. This column introduces an information provision experiment in a model of rational inattention – where
25% inflation, 50 years on
UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence
How real-time data misled policymakers during the post-COVID recovery
Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. This column shows how real-time GDP releases
Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column
The return of inflation: Why ‘look through’ can backfire under incomplete information
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock
Gulf central banks cut key interest rates following Fed move
The Fed cut its rate by a quarter of a percentage point, in a move that won support from most of President Donald Trump’s central
Dollar regains some ground, still heading for weekly drop
Sterling traded at $1.3545, slipping 0.2% after data showed the British economy stagnated in July. The dollar inched higher on Friday after falling the day
Sri Lanka economy reports 4.9% growth in second quarter
Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector grew by 2% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Sri Lanka’s economy grew 4.9% year-on-year in the second quarter
Oil holds steady as investors assess attacks on Russian energy facilities
Oil also received some support from solid refinery demand in China last month and a decline in US crude inventories. Oil prices were little changed
Dollar firm as geopolitics heat up; investors await US inflation data
The data did not offer much insight into job creation since March, leaving U.S. rate expectations unchanged for now. The dollar held steady on Wednesday
