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trade Economy Featured News World

The Great Wall of Chinese goods: The effect of tariff-induced re-rerouting on euro area consumer prices

Tariffs affect both supply and demand, possibly with contrasting effects on prices. This column shows that renewed US-China tensions could redirect Chinese exports to the euro area, boosting supply and lowering prices. Using detailed trade and inflation data, it estimates that such diversion could cut core euro area inflation by 0.3 percentage points over two […]

World Economy Featured News trade

Trump’s tariffs: Disregarding lessons from history and scenarios and probable outcomes

History is full of evidence that tariffs harm economic performance. This column assesses the two waves of globalisation in modern history and how they were interrupted by barriers to trade. The first wave started in the mid-19th century and lasted until WWI, while the second wave started after WWII and lasted until the Global Crisis […]