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Global Business and Finance Magazine > Blog > Global
Economy Energy Featured News World

Migration and regime change: Outflows follow democratic decline, inflows fuel illiberal drift

Recent years have seen a global shift towards illiberal forms of governance. Migration is often a central force in these dynamics. This column investigates the two-way interaction between international migration and political regime change. The author shows, first, that substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies can exacerbate institutional weaknesses. Second, democratic decline tends to increase […]

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Economy Featured News trade World

India-China rapprochement: what are the long-term prospects?

Despite signs of cautious improvement, India-China relations remain deeply strained by border tensions and mutual distrust. China-India relations, which have long been fraught, were further complicated by the 2020 military standoff on the Himalayan border. The political disruption had a significant impact on Chinese companies’ presence in India. And yet, India’s dependence on Chinese imports […]

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Economy Featured Finance News World

Geopolitical risks and the effectiveness of the EU cohesion policy

Geopolitical issues are flooding current political and economic debate, but evidence is limited on their interplay with structural policies. Combining information on geopolitical risks and the EU cohesion policy, this column evaluates the costs of geopolitical tensions in terms of reduced effectiveness of structural funds. The results indicate that the impact of the cohesion policy […]

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Business Economy Featured Finance

New eBook: Trump’s Great Trade Hack

President Trump’s 2025 tariffs mark the onset of the post-American leadership era. This column introduces The Great Trade Hack, a new CEPR Rapid Response book arguing that Trump’s trade policy, driven by a ‘Grievance Doctrine’, is emotionally coherent but economically incoherent. Despite their failure to deliver real solutions, tariffs persist as ‘policy placebos’ that deflect […]

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trade Featured Finance News World

The trade imbalance network and currency fluctuations

In recent years, concerns over global financial fragmentation have grown amid rising geopolitical tensions. This column integrates a network structure in a multi-country model with imperfect financial markets to study how currency risk premia are connected to financiers’ risk bearing capacity. Guided by the theory, it constructs a centrality-based characteristic that gives a direct role […]

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Finance Banking Featured trade World

Overcoming constraints: How banks helped US firms reroute their supply chains

Rising trade tensions and the pandemic have forced importers to reconfigure their supply chains – a complex and costly process. This column highlights the underappreciated role of financial intermediaries in supporting supply chain resilience during global disruptions. Commercial banks – especially those specialising in Asian trade finance – played a crucial role in helping firms […]

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Economy Business Featured trade

Crude realities: Shaky balance in oil’s supply and demand shifts

The first four months of the year have been turbulent for oil markets. Brent crude oil plunged by more than $12 per barrel ($/bbl) in the four trading days following April 2. This marked the 11th-worst four-trading-day price performance since 1990 and was accompanied by a 50 percent surge in anticipated oil price volatility. Brent […]

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Finance Banking Economy Featured

The Commodity Markets Outlook in eight charts

The views expressed in the Let’s Talk Development blog are solely those of the author(s). Commodity prices are projected to decline in 2025, driven by improved supplies, policy uncertainty, and an expected slowdown in global economic growth. Energy prices are expected to see the steepest drop, with the World Bank’s energy price index forecast to fall […]

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World Business trade

Recent trade policy actions: Insights from multiple models

Recent tariff measures by the US and countermeasures by its trading partners have dominated global policy debates. Using three economic models, this column shows how the tariffs impact trade flows, output, and welfare, especially in North America and China. In the short term, tariffs act as negative supply shocks for tariffing countries (depressing output while […]

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