Investment funds are important players in global financial markets. This column examines their behaviour and interaction with other investors during stress periods on European sovereign bond markets. It shows that investment funds are the only investor group that exhibits a distinctly procyclical behaviour by persistently selling euro periphery sovereign debt in response to euro disaster […]
A confluence of negative forces – some the result of self-inflicted wounds and rising uncertainty about US policies and others relating to global developments and geopolitics – is encroaching on the ability of the US to continue its current funding model, bringing into question the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This […]
Over the past two decades, many developing countries have made remarkable progress in reducing poverty, expanding access to education and health care, and investing in infrastructure. These gains were the result of sound national policies and coordinated efforts by the international community, often financed through responsible borrowing. But the road ahead looks more precarious. Debt […]
The world is seriously off track to meet global nutrition targets. In fact, in some countries, statistics are moving in the wrong direction. Stunting remains a widespread problem, with nearly 148 million children affected, while at the other end of the spectrum, millions of adults are either struggling with obesity or suffering from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). […]
Geopolitical risk is a key concern for the euro area, yet most available measures reflect a US perspective. This column introduces a new indicator of geopolitical risk tailored specifically to the euro area, based entirely on newspaper coverage from local sources. The authors show that shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary effects, […]
The World Bank’s metals and minerals price index edged up by 3 percent in May, partially recovering from an 8 percent plunge in April that had erased gains from early 2025. Metal prices have recently been shaped by rising global economic uncertainty and intensifying trade tensions. Prices are expected to decline through 2025 and 2026, […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
Artificial intelligence is widely seen as a transformative force for productivity and innovation. Yet, its macroeconomic implications remain uncertain, especially from a global perspective. This column shows how structural differences in AI exposure, preparedness, and access in advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income countries shape the distribution of AI-induced productivity gains. While improvements in AI […]
Recent years have seen a global shift towards illiberal forms of governance. Migration is often a central force in these dynamics. This column investigates the two-way interaction between international migration and political regime change. The author shows, first, that substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies can exacerbate institutional weaknesses. Second, democratic decline tends to increase […]
Despite signs of cautious improvement, India-China relations remain deeply strained by border tensions and mutual distrust. China-India relations, which have long been fraught, were further complicated by the 2020 military standoff on the Himalayan border. The political disruption had a significant impact on Chinese companies’ presence in India. And yet, India’s dependence on Chinese imports […]
