The World Bank’s metals and minerals price index edged up by 3 percent in May, partially recovering from an 8 percent plunge in April that had erased gains from early 2025. Metal prices have recently been shaped by rising global economic uncertainty and intensifying trade tensions. Prices are expected to decline through 2025 and 2026, […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
Artificial intelligence is widely seen as a transformative force for productivity and innovation. Yet, its macroeconomic implications remain uncertain, especially from a global perspective. This column shows how structural differences in AI exposure, preparedness, and access in advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income countries shape the distribution of AI-induced productivity gains. While improvements in AI […]
Recent years have seen a global shift towards illiberal forms of governance. Migration is often a central force in these dynamics. This column investigates the two-way interaction between international migration and political regime change. The author shows, first, that substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies can exacerbate institutional weaknesses. Second, democratic decline tends to increase […]
Despite signs of cautious improvement, India-China relations remain deeply strained by border tensions and mutual distrust. China-India relations, which have long been fraught, were further complicated by the 2020 military standoff on the Himalayan border. The political disruption had a significant impact on Chinese companies’ presence in India. And yet, India’s dependence on Chinese imports […]
Geopolitical issues are flooding current political and economic debate, but evidence is limited on their interplay with structural policies. Combining information on geopolitical risks and the EU cohesion policy, this column evaluates the costs of geopolitical tensions in terms of reduced effectiveness of structural funds. The results indicate that the impact of the cohesion policy […]
The major turbulence being experienced by the world economy could lead to a global recession and the collapse of the norms and institutions that have been critical for stability and economic development since the Second World War. In particular, the United States has adopted a level of tariff protection last seen in the 1930s and […]
President Trump’s 2025 tariffs mark the onset of the post-American leadership era. This column introduces The Great Trade Hack, a new CEPR Rapid Response book arguing that Trump’s trade policy, driven by a ‘Grievance Doctrine’, is emotionally coherent but economically incoherent. Despite their failure to deliver real solutions, tariffs persist as ‘policy placebos’ that deflect […]
In recent years, concerns over global financial fragmentation have grown amid rising geopolitical tensions. This column integrates a network structure in a multi-country model with imperfect financial markets to study how currency risk premia are connected to financiers’ risk bearing capacity. Guided by the theory, it constructs a centrality-based characteristic that gives a direct role […]
Rising trade tensions and the pandemic have forced importers to reconfigure their supply chains – a complex and costly process. This column highlights the underappreciated role of financial intermediaries in supporting supply chain resilience during global disruptions. Commercial banks – especially those specialising in Asian trade finance – played a crucial role in helping firms […]
