As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and political conditions to construct the full distribution of potential future debt outcomes. The framework shows that debt risks are high, rising, and tilted to the upside. Debt levels are projected […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
Vikhsit Bharat : This is the ambitious goal India has set itself of becoming a high-income country by 2047. But reaching this goal will require India to grow almost 8 percent on average for the next 22 years. That would mean an acceleration from the 6.6 percent growth per year that India achieved over the last 25 […]
Geopolitical issues are flooding current political and economic debate, but evidence is limited on their interplay with structural policies. Combining information on geopolitical risks and the EU cohesion policy, this column evaluates the costs of geopolitical tensions in terms of reduced effectiveness of structural funds. The results indicate that the impact of the cohesion policy […]
President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” announced on 2 April sent shockwaves through the global economy. This column introduces the European Commission’s Spring Forecast, which depicts a resilient EU economy. Yet growth is set to remain modest, reinforcing the image of a continent buffeted by external shocks and mired in low growth. Tariffs, and even more […]
Rising trade tensions and the pandemic have forced importers to reconfigure their supply chains – a complex and costly process. This column highlights the underappreciated role of financial intermediaries in supporting supply chain resilience during global disruptions. Commercial banks – especially those specialising in Asian trade finance – played a crucial role in helping firms […]
A 2018 Vox column examined the geopolitical premium enjoyed by the US thanks to its security alliances and ‘dollar diplomacy’. This column, written by one of the original authors, suggests that in light of recent moves by the Trump administration, it is timely to recall the earlier conclusions that countries that rely on the US […]
Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rapidly shifting global alliances, policymakers are advocating strategies such as ‘friendshoring’ to safeguard supply chain resilience. This column uses data on 700 US firms importing from 96 countries between 2007 and 2020 to show that US firms reduce imports from countries that become ideologically distant from the […]
