Nearly 20 years have passed since the EU and India started negotiations on a bilateral trade and investment agreement. After seven years of intense negotiations, the process stalled in 2014, primarily because of the failure of the respective political leaders to make difficult choices. Talks restarted in 2022 and now offer a reasonable chance of […]
Policy debates around climate change frequently focus on the trade-off between the near-term costs of reducing carbon emissions and the long-term benefits of mitigating climate change. William Nordhaus highlighted the importance of aggregate productivity losses from climate change in shaping this intertemporal trade-off, but estimating these losses is challenging. This column examines both the direct […]
Advanced economies alone can no longer determine climate outcomes. Emerging and developing economies – home to two-thirds of current emissions and most of the world’s biodiversity – are now the decisive arena. For these countries to transition to low-carbon, nature-positive development paths rapidly and at scale, climate and nature strategies must be embedded in mutually […]
Every year, the World Bank Group classifies the world’s economies into four income groups: low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high. These classifications, updated each year on July 1, are based on the previous year’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, expressed in U.S. dollars using the Atlas method. The Importance of Income Classification A country’s income classification not only […]
The world is seriously off track to meet global nutrition targets. In fact, in some countries, statistics are moving in the wrong direction. Stunting remains a widespread problem, with nearly 148 million children affected, while at the other end of the spectrum, millions of adults are either struggling with obesity or suffering from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). […]
There is currently much discussion about President Trump’s tariffs, the US trade deficit, and its causes and impacts, but little in the way of economic modelling to inform the discussion. This column uses a theoretical model of international trade to demonstrate that the US trade deficit might be regarded as the consequence of rational market […]
The collapse of the Bretton Woods system has traditionally been cited as heralding a major shift towards floating exchange rates. The extent of this transition has recently been challenged. This column introduces a new index of global exchange rate fixity which is invariant to country boundaries and accounts for indirect relationships. It finds that global […]
In a region where millions still face hunger and malnutrition, it is concerning that South Asia also loses a significant share of its food before it ever reaches the plate. Over 30% of all food in the region is lost or wasted each year, which is enough to feed nearly 300 million people. From farm to […]
As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and political conditions to construct the full distribution of potential future debt outcomes. The framework shows that debt risks are high, rising, and tilted to the upside. Debt levels are projected […]
Depending on how it is measured, China’s economy is now the world’s largest or second largest. It is also the world’s second-most intertwined in terms of trade relationships, after the European Union, and is a major investor and lender in the emerging world. Understanding where China is heading is important for the whole world. This […]
