Dollar on course to end week flat against EUR; lower against JPY, GBP. The dollar was largely steady against the euro and British pound on Friday as traders trimmed wagers on monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve following hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data. The Japanese yen, meanwhile, firmed broadly following surprising strong economic growth […]
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s latest forecasts show a cumulative deficit of $22.7trln from fiscal 2026 to 2035. U.S. federal budget deficits will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than projected in January by the Congressional Budget Office as a result of tax and spending legislation and tariffs, a budget […]
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association with a weaker dollar, appears to be the right way for the US to improve its trade balance. In addition, the US should pursue an outcome in which there is […]
Dollar on course to end week flat against EUR; lower against JPY, GBP The dollar was largely steady against the euro and British pound on Friday as traders trimmed wagers on monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve following hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data. The Japanese yen, meanwhile, firmed broadly following surprising strong economic growth […]
Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have made in terms of lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This column proposes a method to embed those efficiency gains into existing productivity measures. For traditional (small) estimates of the cost of […]
Over the past 30 years, laws in Italy have become longer, more convoluted, and frequently unintelligible even to seasoned legal professionals. This column exploits variation in the ability of lower courts to interpret poorly drafted laws in alignment with Italy’s Supreme Court of Cassation to assess how legal uncertainty affects the local economy. The authors […]
During the past 20 years, the world economy has suffered two major crises in the form of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. This column identifies the turning points of recessions and expansions in 101 advanced and developing economies between 1990 and 2022 and analyses the drivers of economic recovery. Across the sample, […]
Imagine a truckload of fresh mangoes grown by smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka. The fruit is ripe, fragrant, and ready for export. But instead of heading straight to market, it sits at the border waiting for inspections, test results, and paper certifications. Hours turn into days. By the time the mangoes reach their destination, some […]
After the June NATO summit, Europe faces greater challenges in funding its green, digital, and defence transitions, as new defence commitments strain national and EU budgets. Balancing strategic priorities with debt sustainability is key. This column proposes a three-pronged strategy of (i) using existing fiscal tools, (ii) adopting additional national measures, and (iii) building a […]
By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained low, the combination of which generated historically low sacrifice ratios (output losses per inflation reduction). These standard metrics for success, however, ignore adjustments in the price level, which rose by […]
