As geopolitical tensions rise, fears of deglobalisation have taken centre stage. However, world trade has remained surprisingly resilient, at least through 2023. This column uses bilateral trade data from 187 countries between 2015 and 2023 to identify decoupling patterns and their economic impacts. Trade reorientation mirrors political alliances more than comparative advantage, with a quarter […]
WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%. Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 […]
While trade debates focus on tariffs and goods, services have quietly defied deglobalisation and become an increasingly important driver of growth. Services trade not only generates productivity spillovers and labour-market gains, but it is also where future policy tensions could emerge. Yet services trade remains under-measured and under-studied. This column introduces the new Bilateral Trade […]
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has a rich cultural heritage, and a wealth of natural assets like the colorful Red Sea and stunning desert landscapes. Visitors can scuba dive with sea turtles today and traverse 2,000 year-old Nabatean tombs tomorrow. Until recently, tourism in the Kingdom mainly concentrated on Islam’s iconic religious sites. That […]
WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%. Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 […]
As populations age, noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions are draining South American economies, reducing labour supply and diverting resources from investment. This column presents a macroeconomic model for ten South American countries to examine the effects of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions on healthcare costs and human capital. The findings suggest that from […]
In the words of President Julius Maada Bio, “access to safe water and sanitation is not a favor extended to the few, but a right guaranteed to all.” Many households in Sierra Leone still dream of safe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) instead of experiencing it daily. Children spend mornings fetching water instead of going […]
Economic historians have long debated whether lagging regions can catch up in productivity with industrial leaders. This column shows that, under the right conditions, such catch-up can be remarkably rapid. Using newly digitised US Census of Manufactures data covering 48 states and over 120 industries from 1880 to 2007, it finds strong unconditional convergence in […]
Education is part of the enabling infrastructure required for jobs, social development, and future economic growth. Unfortunately, low- and middle-income countries face an urgent skills crisis with nearly 70% of children unable to read a simple text by age 10. In response, governments, households, and donors spend more than $5.8 trillion annually on financing education […]
Economic growth in Europe continues to lag behind that of the US, largely due to smaller productivity gains. This column uses a general equilibrium model to show that a more integrated capital market in Europe could strengthen investment by reducing the cost of capital (price effect) and encouraging the entry of investors more inclined to […]
