As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and political conditions to construct the full distribution of potential future debt outcomes. The framework shows that debt risks are high, rising, and tilted to the upside. Debt levels are projected […]
Depending on how it is measured, China’s economy is now the world’s largest or second largest. It is also the world’s second-most intertwined in terms of trade relationships, after the European Union, and is a major investor and lender in the emerging world. Understanding where China is heading is important for the whole world. This […]
Creative industries, such as film, music, fashion design and advertising are a growing important source of economic activity globally, generating around $2 trillion of revenues and supporting over 50 million jobs, especially for young people. Yet they struggle to get the financing they need to reach their full business potential. The Power of Creative Industries […]
Cities in low- and middle-income countries are growing fast—but their ability to finance the infrastructure and services needed to support people and jobs is lagging behind. The consequences are real: without better roads, transit, water, energy, and housing, cities struggle to deliver basic services or attract investment, limiting job creation and economic opportunity. That’s because urban infrastructure […]
Despite a succession of shocks since 2020, the global economy has held up remarkably well—so far. But the margin for error is dwindling. Total global debt is now nearly 25 percent higher than it was on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic, when it already was at an all-time high. This overhang could undercut all economies’ ability to shield […]
Thailand’s coastal and marine resources are vital engines of growth. From pristine beaches that attract millions of tourists each year to the Eastern Economic Corridor that supports production and trade, the country’s “blue economy” involving 23 coastal provinces is estimated to contribute around 30 percent of Thailand’s GDP and one-fourth of the nation’s employment. As Thailand […]
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
Public debt-to-GDP ratios have climbed to historic highs in most advanced economies. This column studies the connection between productivity growth, fiscal policy, and public debt. Using a theoretical model, it argues that a feedback loop is possible between fiscal policy and growth. Large primary surpluses are associated with fiscal distortions which depress investment and productivity […]
South Asia is grappling with significant fiscal challenges that affect its governments’ ability to provide essential public services. Although its tax rates are often higher than average, the region struggles with low tax revenues. This blog explores the reasons behind these low revenues and discusses potential solutions to bridge the revenue gap and strengthen South […]
Vikhsit Bharat : This is the ambitious goal India has set itself of becoming a high-income country by 2047. But reaching this goal will require India to grow almost 8 percent on average for the next 22 years. That would mean an acceleration from the 6.6 percent growth per year that India achieved over the last 25 […]
