Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
Imagine your favorite open-air market. Stalls hustle for customers, prices fall, and shoppers win—until one fragile roof gives way and everyone scrambles. Banking is similar. Lean rivalry makes credit cheaper; cut-throat rivalry slashes margins so deeply that lenders may gamble to survive. Finding the sweet spot is not guess-work. A new World Bank working paper – Navigating […]
In recent years, concerns over global financial fragmentation have grown amid rising geopolitical tensions. This column integrates a network structure in a multi-country model with imperfect financial markets to study how currency risk premia are connected to financiers’ risk bearing capacity. Guided by the theory, it constructs a centrality-based characteristic that gives a direct role […]
On this year’s International Day of Families, we explore a critical issue: the sidelining of family-oriented policies in mainstream economic discussions. Despite their transformative potential, family laws governing marriage, divorce, property rights, inheritance, and household decision-making often remain overlooked. These laws define personal relationships and set the legal boundaries of women’s agency, mobility, and access […]
The immediate effects of climate-related risks are particularly relevant for the financial sector. Climate stress tests, which are often carried out over three to five-year periods, have become crucial for assessing the impact of shifting weather patterns and evolving climate policies on both the economy and the financial system. This column highlights the key findings […]
The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty – agreed and disagreed uncertainty. It shows that when uncertainty is accompanied by widespread consumer disagreement about economic conditions (disagreed uncertainty), the economy remains stable despite the elevated uncertainty. In contrast, […]
In recent years, banks’ credit line exposure to non-bank financial institutions has grown significantly. This column analyses the implications by focusing on a specific type of such institutions – real estate investment trusts. These trusts are significant investors in commercial real estate and therefore exposed to rising interest rates and economic slowdowns. They have higher […]
Shareholders voted overwhelmingly to approve the dividend proposals brought forth by each companies’ Boards of Directors ADNOC Group’s publicly traded portfolio companies collectively endorsed over $6.7 billion (AED24.6 billion) in annual dividend payments to shareholders for 2024, reflecting their strong financial health and commitment to shareholders value. At the Annual General Meetings (AGM) of all […]
Forecasts from professionals (economists, analysts, brokers, academics) are a key input into economic decision-making. This column highlights that professional forecasts are ‘lumpy’, often remaining unchanged for several periods, before shifting in large, infrequent jumps. It argues that this reflects ‘rational inaction’, as frequent adjustments or constant swings could undermine credibility. It suggests a natural distinction […]
Emerging markets with partially dollarised financial systems are particularly vulnerable to global financial cycles. This column examines how reserve requirements on foreign currency deposits can help mitigate credit booms induced by capital inflows. Focusing on Peru between 2008 and 2017, the authors combine microdata with a calibrated macro model to show that foreign currency reserve […]
