Investors and policymakers increasingly rely on verbal guidance rather than policy moves. This column examines whether the emotional sentiment of the chair of the Federal Reserve’s voice in press conferences affects the probability of a sudden, significant drop in bank stock prices. A more positive vocal tone by the Fed chair reduces the risk of […]
During the pandemic, annual CPI inflation in the US rose sharply to a peak of 9% in June 2022. This column argues that the rise of inflation can be explained with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations, the tightness of the labour market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, and […]
U.S. authorities are preparing to announce one of the biggest cuts in banks’ capital requirements in over a decade, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. Regulators were in the next few months poised to reduce the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), the newspaper reported, citing several people familiar with the matter. The supplementary leverage ratio is […]
Oil prices rebounded over 1% on Tuesday with technical rebound and dip buying after a drop in prior session by OPEC+ decision to accelerate increases in output, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted. Brent crude futures rose 92 cents to $61.15 a barrel by 0309 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added […]
In the event of dysfunction in dollar funding markets, the Federal Reserve can supply liquidity through standing central bank swaps. This column considers a scenario in which the Fed declines to extend such credit. It argues that 14 major central banks hold roughly $1.9 trillion in US safe assets. They could form a dollar coalition […]
