Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs accounted for perhaps 30-40 basis points of the latest core inflation reading of 2.9% but the effect should be “relatively short-lived”. U.S. companies and consumers are bearing the brunt of the country’s new import tariffs, early indications show, contradicting assertions by President Donald Trump and complicating the Federal Reserve’s […]
Gold broke through $4,100 per ounce for the first time on Monday, hitting another record high on renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, while silver also rose to an all-time high. Spot gold was up 2.1% to $4,099.55 per ounce, as of 10:50 a.m. ET (1450 GMT), after hitting a […]
Central banks rarely speak with one voice. At the Federal Reserve, for instance, each official brings a distinct perspective, and markets parse every speech for hints of where policy is headed. Different views may help make better decisions, but do they also help when explaining those decisions to the public? And what happens when voices […]
There is general agreement that a currency’s safe-haven status can be gauged by its response to changes in financial volatility. This column documents how, in the months following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to […]
The launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 marked a turning point in how firms and investors view generative artificial intelligence. This column measures the extent and tone of firms’ discussions of GenAI in earnings calls, and finds that early engagement with AI topics boosted stock market performance beyond the immediate impact on expected earnings. The […]
Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. This column shows how real-time GDP releases understated the strength of the post-pandemic recovery in both the euro area and the United States. This distorted view painted a more pessimistic picture than subsequently revised data revealed, masking […]
Spot gold was trading around $3,680 per ounce on Tuesday after hitting a record $3,689.27 earlier in the session. Gold’s stellar rally to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing for the rest of the year, but a healthy correction is on the cards before breaching the $4,000 per ounce milestone in 2026, traders […]
Sterling traded at $1.3545, slipping 0.2% after data showed the British economy stagnated in July. The dollar inched higher on Friday after falling the day before as a surge in U.S. jobless claims and a modest tick up in inflation kept investors zeroed in on likely Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week and beyond. […]
ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast on Wednesday to $3,800 per ounce and expects prices to peak near $4,000 by next June. Gold prices hovered near an all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this month, while market participants awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the […]
The new US administration has made the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking more complicated both because of the elevated uncertainty regarding administration policies and because of the extraordinary political pressure put on the central bank. This column describes how, thus far, the Fed has followed a cautious path for policy, waiting for more information on policy […]
