The first four months of the year have been turbulent for oil markets. Brent crude oil plunged by more than $12 per barrel ($/bbl) in the four trading days following April 2. This marked the 11th-worst four-trading-day price performance since 1990 and was accompanied by a 50 percent surge in anticipated oil price volatility. Brent […]
The views expressed in the Let’s Talk Development blog are solely those of the author(s). Commodity prices are projected to decline in 2025, driven by improved supplies, policy uncertainty, and an expected slowdown in global economic growth. Energy prices are expected to see the steepest drop, with the World Bank’s energy price index forecast to fall […]
The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty – agreed and disagreed uncertainty. It shows that when uncertainty is accompanied by widespread consumer disagreement about economic conditions (disagreed uncertainty), the economy remains stable despite the elevated uncertainty. In contrast, […]
Pseudo-wealth is a perception of wealth that is not backed by real economic resources. When people have widely different beliefs, they create ‘wealth’ through betting. This column describes how this perceived wealth can rapidly inflate or deflate without changing real economic fundamentals, leading to volatility in spending and potential economic instability. It raises the question […]
Oil prices climbed about 2% to a two-week high on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily slash tariffs, raising hopes of an end to the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. Brent crude futures rose $1.35, or 2.1%, to $65.26 a barrel by 11:39 a.m. EDT (1539 GMT), while U.S. […]
The recent shift in trade policy by the new US administration is impacting global trade and creating volatility in financial markets. This column quantifies the economic impact of the 2nd April tariffs on Europe, discusses the financial market response to the announcement, and looks at the role of the exchange rate response for the transmission […]
The performance of stock markets often appears worse in the daily news than it actually is. This column argues that this negative news bias arises from two factors: (1) journalists tend to focus on major events, and (2) the daily performance of stock market indices is negatively skewed. It shows that about half of the […]
Oil prices were up slightly on Friday, after rising about 3% in the previous session, as trade tensions between top oil consumers U.S. and China showed signs of easing and Britain announced a “breakthrough” trade deal with the United States. Brent crude rose 23 cents, or 0.37%, to $63.07 a barrel while U.S. West Texas […]
The U.S. dollar slipped again on Monday as a meteoric surge in its Taiwanese counterpart stoked speculation some Asian countries were prepared to engineer revaluations of their currencies to win U.S. trade concessions. Asia-Pacific currencies were the major developed-market beneficiaries of the fallout from that, and the dollar was down 0.7% on the Japanese yen […]
Gold climbed on Thursday after the Federal Reserve warned of rising inflation and labor market risks fuelling economic uncertainty, while investors awaited the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks this weekend. Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,409.76 an ounce, as of 0223 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.7% to $3,416.70. “I think it’s mostly a […]
