The global economy is facing heightened uncertainty, clouding economic forecasts. In our recently launched April 2025 Middle East and North Africa Economic Update , we report that growth in MENA averaged a modest 1.9% in 2024 and is forecast to accelerate moderately to 2.6% in 2025. But growth forecasts for countries across the region are shadowed in […]
Tariffs disrupt trade flows and influence prices, but their broader impact depends on how they are structured and the type of goods targeted. This column examines the economic implications of tariffs across the supply chain, with a particular focus on how different modes of retaliation to US tariffs impact economic activity, inflation, and trade. The […]
Despite signs of cautious improvement, India-China relations remain deeply strained by border tensions and mutual distrust. China-India relations, which have long been fraught, were further complicated by the 2020 military standoff on the Himalayan border. The political disruption had a significant impact on Chinese companies’ presence in India. And yet, India’s dependence on Chinese imports […]
Geopolitical issues are flooding current political and economic debate, but evidence is limited on their interplay with structural policies. Combining information on geopolitical risks and the EU cohesion policy, this column evaluates the costs of geopolitical tensions in terms of reduced effectiveness of structural funds. The results indicate that the impact of the cohesion policy […]
President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” announced on 2 April sent shockwaves through the global economy. This column introduces the European Commission’s Spring Forecast, which depicts a resilient EU economy. Yet growth is set to remain modest, reinforcing the image of a continent buffeted by external shocks and mired in low growth. Tariffs, and even more […]
The major turbulence being experienced by the world economy could lead to a global recession and the collapse of the norms and institutions that have been critical for stability and economic development since the Second World War. In particular, the United States has adopted a level of tariff protection last seen in the 1930s and […]
Critical technologies including artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum computing are attracting attention because of their indispensable nature and their role in national security strategies. We compare China, the United States and the European Union in these technologies and their subfields. We use large language models (LLMs) to identify which patents in these technologies can be […]
Government procurement—the process in which public entities buy goods and services from private companies—represents between 5% and 20% of a country’s GDP, depending on the country. Public procurement policies allow governments to strategically support certain firms and sectors, for example, small businesses or eco-friendly products. In using public procurement systems, policymakers must navigate a trade-off: […]
The EU will propose to G7 finance ministers this week to lower the current $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil as part of the new sanctions package against Moscow, European Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Monday. Dombrovskis did not mention the level to which the European Union would want the price […]
A fundamental problem for sovereigns enacting climate policies is whether they can manage increasing debts as their economies suffer from adverse climate impacts. We develop stochastic debt sustainability analysis integrating a coupled climate-economy model with debt financing scenario optimisation, and stress test sovereign debt for representative countries globally under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change […]
