Agreed and disagreed uncertainty: Rethinking the macroeconomic impact of uncertainty
The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty –
When illusions of wealth shape the economy: Understanding pseudo-wealth, macroeconomic volatility, and social welfare
Pseudo-wealth is a perception of wealth that is not backed by real economic resources. When people have widely different beliefs, they create ‘wealth’ through betting.
Oil prices climb 2% to two-week high on US-China tariff reductions
Oil prices climbed about 2% to a two-week high on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily slash tariffs, raising hopes of an
Exchange rate uncertainty, tariff hikes, and adjustment costs
The recent shift in trade policy by the new US administration is impacting global trade and creating volatility in financial markets. This column quantifies the
Big news missing the big picture: Stock market performance in the news
The performance of stock markets often appears worse in the daily news than it actually is. This column argues that this negative news bias arises
Oil prices up ahead of Sino-US trade meeting
Oil prices were up slightly on Friday, after rising about 3% in the previous session, as trade tensions between top oil consumers U.S. and China
Dollar slips, Taiwan dollar surge draws eyes
The U.S. dollar slipped again on Monday as a meteoric surge in its Taiwanese counterpart stoked speculation some Asian countries were prepared to engineer revaluations
Gold rises as Fed flags economic uncertainty; Sino-US trade talks in focus
Gold climbed on Thursday after the Federal Reserve warned of rising inflation and labor market risks fuelling economic uncertainty, while investors awaited the outcome of
Agrifood powers economies and jobs across Europe and Central Asia
As economies develop, it is often assumed that agriculture becomes less relevant—a small slice of GDP and a shrinking share of employment. But evidence from
The effects of fiscal aid on health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic
As governments around the world combatted COVID-19, the US witnessed unprecedented levels of funding transfers from the federal government to state and local municipalities. This
