COVID-19 hit low-income exporters hard, exposing risks from weak diversification and straining trade, supply systems and financial stability. The COVID-19 pandemic sent shockwaves through global supply chains as borders closed, lockdowns went into effect and demand plummeted. This shock was felt particularly by low and lower-middle income countries with economies reliant on a limited set […]
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock is temporary or persistent, this column shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete. In contrast, a standard Taylor rule prevents an additional demand-driven inflation impulse […]
China’s growth model has continued to rely on expanding industrial capacity and exporting to the world, rather than on domestic consumption. This has lead to a significant increase in China’s global share of manufactured exports and has raised concerns about overcapacity (Figure 1; Xu, 2025). The imbalance arises because China’s expanding production capacity is outpacing […]
Violence against women intensified under COVID-19 lockdowns. The most rigorous literature evaluating the impact of stay-at-home measures, job loss, and social isolation on various forms of violence against women, including femicide highlights two effective policy responses: specialised support services and emergency cash transfers. Drawing on recent findings from Brazil and broader international evidence, this column […]
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked an end to stability in Europe. This column analyses the economic effects for Ukraine, Russia, as well as spillovers on other countries, using professional forecast data from 29 nations. Forecasters predicted that the war would be highly stagflationary for Ukraine and Russia, lowering GDP and increasing the price […]
An estimated 254 million people (approximately 3 in 100) lived with chronic hepatitis B in 2022, a virus which causes inflammation of the liver and can lead to severe liver disease and liver cancer. Despite the disease being preventable and treatable, an estimated 1.1 million people died from hepatitis B in 2022 alone. Indonesia (17.5 million), Nigeria […]
As the world continues to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, countries face new and unexpected challenges. Elevated debt levels, persistent inflation, and weakened growth prospects have created a perfect storm of financial pressure. For many nations, this has meant shrinking the budgets in vital sectors like health, education, and the environment. In […]
The unprecedented wave of state aid to firms across the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic raised questions about who benefited and how effective these interventions were. This column uses firm-level data from Spain and Italy – two of the countries worst affected by the pandemic – to evaluate the economic impact of aid. Targeted support […]
As inflation surged globally, economists and policymakers focused their attention on the expectations of households and financial markets – but relatively little was known about the inflation expectations of firms. Using a survey of French firms from 2020 to 2024, this column examines how inflation expectations form, evolve, and affect decisions, as well as their […]
The U.S. has stopped recommending routine COVID-19 vaccinations for pregnant women and healthy children, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr announced in a social media post on Tuesday, circumventing the CDC’s traditional recommendation process. Kennedy, FDA commissioner Marty Makary and National Institutes of Health director Jay Bhattacharya said in a video that the shots have […]
