Precious metal prices declined in 2026Q2 (q/q) after 14 consecutive months of gains through February, including a 24 percent increase in 2026Q1. By June, gold was about 15 percent below its February peak, while silver and platinum were about 25 percent below their January record highs. Despite the pullback, the World Bank’s precious metals price index is projected to rise by 42 percent in 2026 (y/y) before declining by 8 percent in 2027. Gold is expected to remain supported by safe-haven demand and continued central bank purchases. Silver and platinum prices should remain firm, underpinned by industrial demand and constrained supply. Risks are tilted to the upside, particularly from renewed geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and financial market volatility.
Gold has lost some shine, but prices remain high. Gold prices fell in 2026Q2 as expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes strengthened and the U.S. dollar rose to a one-year high in June. The decline also reflected some easing in safe-haven demand and profit-taking after a strong rally earlier in the year. Even after this pullback, prices in 2026H1 averaged nearly 37 percent above their 2025 level. Gold demand fell by 10 percent in 2026Q1 on a quarter-on-quarter basis, reflecting weaker jewelry demand and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. This was partly offset by strong bar and coin demand and higher central bank purchases. Central bank buying is expected to continue supporting prices, while jewelry demand is likely to remain subdued amid elevated prices. Supply is expected to respond only gradually: mine output is projected to remain broadly stable despite high prices, while recycled gold—which accounts for nearly 30 percent of global supply—is likely to remain supported by still-elevated prices. As a result, gold prices are projected to rise by about 37 percent in 2026 before declining by 9 percent in 2027.
Silver prices fell by about 11 percent in 2026Q2 after surging by 55 percent in 2026Q1 and reaching all-time nominal highs in January. Despite the Q2 decline, silver prices in 2026H1 were almost 100 percent above their 2025 annual average. Prices remain supported by some of the same drivers as gold, as well as tight supply conditions. Silver is a key input in fast-growing sectors, including renewable energy and semiconductors, although substitution in photovoltaic technologies is expected to temper growth in industrial use. Retail investment demand—including coins, bars, and exchange-traded funds—is expected to remain firm, helping offset weaker demand for jewelry, silverware, and some industrial uses. With supply conditions projected to remain tight and demand expected to remain robust, prices are forecast to rise by 76 percent in 2026 before declining by about 7 percent in 2027.
Platinum prices rose to record nominal highs in January before falling by about 27 percent through June, as improved mine and recycling supply eased concerns about physical shortages. Weaker investment demand and profit-taking after the early-year rally also weighed on prices. Jewelry demand is expected to soften, with prices in 2026H1 almost 62 percent above their 2025 average. Automotive demand—platinum’s largest end-use—could also weaken as producers substitute lower-cost palladium. Industrial demand for platinum is expected to recover in 2026 after a sharp decline in 2025, partly offsetting weakness elsewhere. Supply is projected to rise only modestly, with broadly stable mine output and stronger recycling as higher prices encourage additional scrap flows. Even so, the market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026, drawing down above-ground stocks further. Against this background, platinum prices are projected to average about 53 percent higher in 2026 before declining by roughly 13 percent in 2027
The price outlook for precious metals remains highly uncertain, given their sensitivity to shifts in global risk sentiment and macroeconomic conditions. On balance, risks to the forecast are tilted to the upside. Renewed bouts of trade tensions, financial market volatility, or longer-than-expected resolution to the Middle East conflict could strengthen safe-haven demand, particularly for gold and silver, and push prices above current projections. Elevated speculative activity could also amplify the price effects of supply or demand shocks. Downside risks are also significant. Higher-than-expected interest rates would raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, which do not yield interest. A sustained easing of geopolitical tensions could reduce safe-haven demand, while a sharper slowdown in central bank gold purchases would remove an important source of support. Weaker global growth could weigh on industrial demand for silver and platinum, especially from energy-transition technologies, electronics, and automotive production.
Source : World Bank
When we picture engines of economic growth and job creation, we tend to think of…
Two-thirds of the income gap between developed and developing countries can be attributed to disparities…
The Wall Street Journal recently published a sobering account of microfinance's shortcomings, documenting troubling cases…
Valuation losses can build quickly in response to higher interest rates, as demonstrated by the…
Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the…
As countries consider trade deals to foster development, the question of how trade impacts pollution…