Gold hovers near record high ahead of US inflation data

ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast on Wednesday to $3,800 per ounce and expects prices to peak near $4,000 by next June.

Gold prices hovered near an all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this month, while market participants awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,643.78 per ounce, as of 0821 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery were flat at $3,682.30.

“Gold’s gains come on the back of expectations of Fed rate cuts, supported by signs of cooling in the U.S. labour market, which have weakened the dollar,” Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades said.

Last week, U.S. nonfarm payroll data pointed to weakening labor market conditions, and sealed the case for a rate cut at the Fed’s September policy meeting.

The U.S. economy likely also created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the government said on Tuesday, suggesting that job growth was already stalling before U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on imports.

“The outsized jobs revisions in the U.S. are almost certainly adding to the pervading sense of economic uncertainty and such out-of-left-field economic shifts underscore the role of gold as a safe-haven asset,” independent analyst Ross Norman said.

Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, while the likelihood of a larger 50-basis-point cut stands at around 8%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The U.S. producer price inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, and the consumer price inflation reading on Thursday will be closely watched for more cues on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.

Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Gold prices have gained 38% so far this year, following a 27% jump in 2024, bolstered by a soft dollar, strong central bank accumulation, dovish monetary settings and heightened global uncertainty.

ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast on Wednesday to $3,800 per ounce and expects prices to peak near $4,000 by next June.

Elsewhere, spot silver added 0.4% to $41.06 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.2% to $1,387.45 and palladium rose 0.2% to $1,1450.73.

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