Forecasting, especially in central banks, is evolving to incorporate a variety of models, following two main approaches: structural and reduced form. The challenge remains to identify which model – or combination of models – is likely to produce more accurate macroeconomic forecasts, especially in an environment that encompasses crisis events. This column argues that merging […]
As the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated, the global health system is only as strong as its weakest link. This column proposes a Global Health Impact metric to measure the effectiveness of health interventions by evaluating lives saved and disabilities prevented. The authors suggest that by considering the dynamic nature of health interventions and their effectiveness in […]
The transition to a green economy will require large investments by firms. This column uses new survey data to study the importance of climate-related investment for UK firms. Over half of firms expect climate change to have a positive impact on their investment in the medium term, and around two-thirds of these investments are expected […]
Accurately forecasting recessions remains a critical issue in macroeconomic analysis. This column introduces a new machine learning algorithm to predict recession risks for 20 OECD countries over quarterly horizons up to two years. The Doombot algorithm tests many combinations of financial and business cycle variables, but also imposes restrictions consistent with basic macroeconomic logic. The […]
The current account surplus of the 20-nation euro zone widened in September, data from the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday. The surplus has been on a widening trend for years as industrial exports, primarily from Germany, far outweigh a hefty import bill for natural resources, including oil and gas. Based on seasonally and calendar […]
An index of global stocks rose 1% on Tuesday while U.S. bond yields and the dollar hung back from multi-month highs, as traders awaited President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet selection and sought to gauge the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Tech shares advanced, tracking Wall Street’s recovery from last week’s steep losses, although Nvidia’s upcoming earnings on Wednesday […]
Meta Platforms said on Tuesday it plans to appeal an order by India’s competition watchdog that restricts the U.S. tech firm from sharing data for advertising between WhatsApp and its other applications and also imposed a $25.4 million fine. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) said in its order on Monday that restrictions on data sharing would be […]
Goldman Sachs has forecast the S&P 500 index would reach 6,500 by the end of 2025, joining peer Morgan Stanley, on the back of continued growth in the U.S. economy and corporate earnings. The Wall Street brokerage’s target implied an upside of 10.3% from the index’s last close of 5,893.62. On Monday, Morgan Stanley also forecast the benchmark […]
Sony is in talks to acquire Kadokawa, the Japanese media powerhouse behind the “Elden Ring” game, two sources familiar with the matter said, as the technology giant looks to add to its entertainment portfolio. The talks between the two sides are ongoing and, if successful, a deal could be signed in the coming weeks, the sources […]
This Policy Brief sets out why the deforestation regulation has the right objectives but needed better design and preparation for implementation Forests are essential to regulating the climate, absorbing greenhouse gases and providing fresh water and habitats for biodiversity and indigenous peoples. If deforestation continues at current rates, large parts of the planet will become […]
