As the Russia-Ukraine war approaches its third year, this paper suggests possible arrangements to end the fighting and restore regional stability that could represent the “least-bad” outcome under far-from-ideal circumstances. While the prospects for immediate talks seem dim today, it is important to consider the content of such arrangements now so policymakers can be prepared […]
The Brexit referendum increased uncertainty regarding future trade conditions between the UK and EU. This column analyses the impact of Brexit trade policy uncertainty on UK import prices. It shows that relative import prices of goods exposed to a higher risk of tariffs co-moved with the expected Brexit probability before the referendum. Overall, it estimates […]
Recent internal turmoil at OpenAI, one of the most closely watched organizations in AI development, has brought an ideological battle into the mainstream. Clear details about why CEO Sam Altman was fired, then rehired, haven’t emerged yet, but one debate at the company is thought to be a contributor: the battle between effective altruism and effective acceleration. […]
The United States needs to better secure its Arctic territories and waters, while working more with its allies to better secure theirs. Although the Arctic has been relatively peaceful since the end of the Cold War—a recurring mantra has been “high latitude, low tensions”—U.S. military forces need to be prepared for unexpected conflicts that can […]
Does the sequence of trade liberalisations matter and do historical trade barriers impact trade today? This column argues that this is indeed the case due to the first-mover advantages of incumbent firms. Such incumbency effects can explain up to 25% of countries’ domestic expenditure shares (the ‘home share’) in international trade. The authors further discuss […]
Economic growth is crucial for realising developmental goals, eradicating poverty, and ensuring the sustainability of debt burdens. Over the last two decades, the world has faced two large recessions, both of which have had a long-tail of dampened growth. This column uses a new dataset of potential growth measures to illustrate that potential growth has […]
What to do with Russia’s foreign reserves, immobilised since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is primarily a matter of decision for the European Union, where most of these reserves are held. The EU should keep giving Ukraine the financial support it needs for its defence and other government expenditures but, in the present circumstances, should […]
In late October 2023, the coastal city of Acapulco, Mexico, faced the devastating force of Hurricane Otis. The Category 5 storm wreaked havoc, leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. Sadly, the impact of the hurricane was not limited to physical damage; it also claimed casualties, adding a sad note to the city’s recovery […]
Disadvantaged adolescents often struggle to transition successfully from school to work. This column shows that mentoring programmes can strongly improve this transition. Results from a field experiment indicate that a German mentoring programme markedly boosts school the achievement, patience, and labour market orientation of students from highly disadvantaged backgrounds. Three years after programme start, mentoring […]
As climate change accelerates, the World Bank is ramping up its support for Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development (GRID) to help countries become more climate resilient. This includes a specific focus on Indigenous Peoples who are among the most vulnerable to climate shocks, and also play a critical role in sustainably managing natural resources; Much of […]
