Supply chain disruptions cause large macroeconomic adjustments and challenge the effectiveness of stabilisation policies. This column provides a new index of global supply chain disruption, presents a new model to identify the causal effect of global supply chain shocks on aggregate variables, and analyses the implications for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The authors document […]
Uncertainty can affect firm decisions because it leads to more cautious behaviour and is associated with learning about viability of the business. Based on a novel survey of German firms, this column finds that uncertainty reflects change. Firms’ planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about their future sales growth when they have just experienced unusual – […]
In early-13th century China, the Mongols introduced the silver standard, the first paper money in history to be backed by a precious metal. This column studies the rise and fall of paper money in 13-14th century China over three stages: full silver convertibility, nominal silver convertibility, and fiat standard. Military pressure in particular led to […]
Though school-based interventions have shown significant success in improving life outcomes for children, interventions targeting adolescents tend to fail when they do not align with adolescents’ desire to feel respected and be granted social status. This column reports on a programme targeting ‘challenging’ students at disadvantaged middle schools in Turkey, in which senior students were […]
Forced displacement often forces children out of school and into employment at a young age. This disruption in their human capital formation leads to poverty in the long term. This column demonstrates that unconditional cash transfers provided to refugee families in Turkey are successful in keeping children in school and out of the workforce. Moreover, […]
At the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi, the WTO e-commerce moratorium was renewed once again, but not without difficulty. This column explores the different issues around the moratorium debate. It argues that the potential foregone customs revenue implications of the moratorium are small and that losses can largely be offset by rising revenue […]
The impact of artificial intelligence on office work and the impact of telework on offices are often examined separately. This column uses survey data from Japan to examine whether artificial intelligence and ‘remote intelligence’ are complements or substitutes. The authors find preliminary, albeit weak, evidence that that the two acting as complements in many office […]
The economic costs of armed conflict – in terms of lost income and reduced physical capital – are borne overwhelmingly by the countries in whose territory the fighting takes place. Yet, wars also impose costs on other countries, particularly those geographically closest to the war site. This column suggests that adverse supply‐side spillovers, a pervasive […]
Intel is planning a $100-billion spending spree across four U.S. states to build and expand factories after securing $19.5 billion in federal grants and loans – and hopes to secure another $25 billion in tax breaks. The centerpiece of Intel’s five-year spending plan is turning empty fields near Columbus, Ohio, into what CEO Pat Gelsinger described […]
Micron Technology’s shares surged 15.7% in premarket trading on Thursday after the company posted a surprise profit and forecast current-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on soaring demand for its memory chips used in AI computing. The company’s stock was last trading at $111.43, on track to set a record high at market open, if gains hold. The […]
