New evidence of strong but slow portfolio responses to equity premium changes
Standard portfolio theory predicts strong investor responses to changes in the equity premium, but empirical evidence has found much lower sensitivity. This column studies the
The implications of climate change for monetary policy
Climate change and the transition to net zero are reshaping the macroeconomy, with important implications for monetary policymakers’ core price-stability objectives. As physical hazards become
European banks and private markets: Mapping the linkages
The role of non-bank financial intermediaries in the financial system has increased markedly over recent decades. This column documents how the growth of private markets,
Global pension asset allocations and debt markets
Pension funds have traditionally invested in global bond markets which offer predictable income and support stable portfolios. This column documents a recent shift in pension
Budgeting for AI in education: What ministries need to know
Technology in education has long followed a familiar pattern: excitement about a new tool, followed by disappointment when it fails to live up to its
Beyond poverty: Why growing the middle class is a different challenge
The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region has achieved one of the most remarkable economic transformations in history. In just a few decades, hundreds of
From promises to proof: Why outcomes are the new currency of development cooperation
Development cooperation is acquiring a dangerous new mathematics. In 2025, official development assistance from European Union donor countries fell by nearly 10 percent in real
Europe’s federated democratic learning state
Europe is moving towards invoice-level electronic VAT reporting. This column argues that, with AI-assisted processing of the information contained in electronic VAT invoices, the tax
How currency hedging moves exchange rates
Foreign investors’ growing holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have created a large demand to hedge dollar risk. Using outstanding FX forward and swap positions for seven
Beyond exposure: Predicting AI adoption based on comparative advantage
Predictions about the workplace impact of artificial intelligence often begin with what the technology can do captured by occupations’ exposure to AI. Using representative data
