Beyond flows: How natural gas supply risk fuels inflation
Europe’s output losses proved limited following the 2022 cutoff of Russian gas flows, yet inflation rose sharply. This column uses weather variation and gas-market events
When Wall Street drifts from Main Street: Consumption as an anchor for stock prices
Debate over whether buoyant equity markets reflect durable economic gains or a widening gap between Wall Street and Main Street has intensified with the AI
Better work, not always better workers
Professional judgement comes from learning by doing, but AI has the potential to disrupt this learning process. This column explores how randomised access to an
Geopolitical risk is reshaping global finance, one bank loan at a time
Geopolitical tensions are increasingly reshaping the flow of trade, investment and capital flows. This column documents that the same process is also reshaping bank lending.
Lifting the curtain on the EU’s debt
The EU’s far-reaching response to a series of major shocks has turned it into a major borrower on international financial markets. Debt issued by the
The cost of not innovating: Frontier AI models, cyber defence, and EU strategic autonomy
The cyber threat landscape changed dramatically in April 2026 with the emergence of frontier AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic. Access to these models was
Capital inflows boost output, even after accounting for expectations
Emerging market economies that are expected to perform well may attract more foreign capital, making it difficult to establish the causal effects of capital inflows
The smokestack illusion: Who really pays for net zero
Reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, as prescribed by the Paris Agreement, is hard to imagine without a carbon tax. This column estimates that reaching
Quantifying financial repression through the lens of portfolio choice: A century of evidence
With public debt at high peacetime levels, how advanced economies can reduce debt burdens is again at the centre of policy debate. This column examines
Measuring what work generative AI does: Survey evidence versus chat logs
The chat logs of AI companies are often used to measure what work AI actually does. This column uses a nationally representative US survey that
