Writing code versus shipping code: Productivity effects across generations of AI coding tools
Generative AI now writes a substantial share of the world’s code, but aggregate software output has changed far less. This column uses data on more
Electing women does not reduce corruption: Evidence from Brazil
As women gain political ground around the world, there is hope that the election of more women might also mean cleaner government. But is this
From bilateralism to a system: Europe’s early trade treaties and lessons for EU trade policy in a contested world
As tensions rise between major powers and the global trading system becomes more contested, policymakers often frame the choice they face starkly: either deeper centralised
Private capital markets and inequality
Private capital markets have expanded rapidly, but access remains concentrated among wealthy investors. This column presents new evidence from the US which shows that high-net-worth
When travel restrictions became trade frictions: Evidence from Covid-era border closures
Covid travel restrictions limited movement of people but also made cross-border goods trade more difficult. This column uses a structural gravity model on global trade
Stack battles: the US-China artificial-intelligence rivalry is moving beyond chips alone
China is challenging US leadership in both AI hardware and software, with Europe unlikely to catch up. Despite Chinese progress, the United States remains for
Should the European Central Bank slow down quantitative tightening?
The ECB could slow down QT in response to currently tight financial conditions, but should communicate its intentions with care. Since early 2023, the European
Buyer beware: a taxonomy of the risks of international carbon credits
As the EU reintegrates international carbon credits into its climate framework, understanding the associated risks is essential. For more than a decade, international carbon credits
Green finance or financing green? Bridging the EU’s sustainable-finance and capital-market architectures
The European Union has not done a good job of integrating its green goals with its overall approach to finance. Sustainability disclosure and capital markets
Prevention at birth: Birthright citizenship reduces youth crime
When youth crime draws public attention, policymakers typically call for tougher policing and harsher sanctions, overlooking the crime-reducing benefits of early prevention – investments in
