From promises to proof: Why outcomes are the new currency of development cooperation
Development cooperation is acquiring a dangerous new mathematics. In 2025, official development assistance from European Union donor countries fell by nearly 10 percent in real
Europe’s federated democratic learning state
Europe is moving towards invoice-level electronic VAT reporting. This column argues that, with AI-assisted processing of the information contained in electronic VAT invoices, the tax
How currency hedging moves exchange rates
Foreign investors’ growing holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have created a large demand to hedge dollar risk. Using outstanding FX forward and swap positions for seven
Beyond exposure: Predicting AI adoption based on comparative advantage
Predictions about the workplace impact of artificial intelligence often begin with what the technology can do captured by occupations’ exposure to AI. Using representative data
Financial engineering is no substitute for interest rates: Lessons from Türkiye
The Turkish central bank cut interest rates over 2021-2023, on the politically driven view that higher rates cause inflation. This column analyses the policies used
Closing the gap in borrowing costs for emerging market firms
Firms in low- and middle-income countries persistently pay more to borrow than firms in high-income economies. Drawing on a new World Bank Group study of
The inflation rate fell but many workers’ pay cheques did not keep up
Inflation in the US has receded from its 2022 peak. This column uses payroll records from 2016 to 2025 to show that many workers have
The Inflation Reduction Act’s regional incentives promoted green investment, but did not create jobs
The US Inflation Reduction Act’s Energy Communities provisions aimed to increase clean-energy investment in areas vulnerable to the energy transition, create jobs, and build political
Anatomy of a supervisory failure
For its entire 15-year life as a regional bank until its collapse in 2023, Silicon Valley Bank held the same risky bet. This column argues
When trade sanctions increase the target’s trade
Data show that trade sanctions reduce commerce between the countries imposing them and their targets. But this bilateral success can conceal a wider failure if
