The traditional U-shape in wellbeing, with people’s life satisfaction lowest in their late 40s or early 50s, appeared to have been replaced around 2013-15 by wellbeing rising with age, driven by a collapse in the wellbeing of the young. This column uses survey data from 21 European countries to show while that the U-shape has indeed disappeared, by 2020–2024 it was replaced by life satisfaction rising with age in Northern European countries but falling with age in Southern Europe where the young have been getting more satisfied with life, possibly due to improvements in the youth labour market.
For a while now, academics have been aware of a global shift in the age profile of wellbeing (Udupa et al. 2023). The U-shape in wellbeing – hitting its nadir when people are in their late 40s or early 50s – has been replaced by what appears to be wellbeing that rises monotonically with age. The reason for the change is a collapse in the wellbeing of the young, both in absolute terms and relative to older people (Blanchflower and Bryson 2024).
Although this new pattern, which emerged around 2013–2015, is not clear in all surveys and is sometimes sensitive to survey methodology, it does seem to be pervasive. Until now, that is. In a new study for 21 European countries using data from the Eurobarometer surveys, we confirm that the U-shaped age profile in life satisfaction has disappeared. However, whereas it has been replaced by life satisfaction rising with age in Northern European countries, life satisfaction is highest among the young in Southern Europe (Blanchflower and Bryson 2025).
In 12 Northern European countries – Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the UK – the U-shape has been replaced by life satisfaction rising with age. (Evidence of change in the U-shape is mixed for Austria and France.) But in six Southern European countries – Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, and Spain – the U-shape was replaced by life satisfaction declining with age.
Figure 1 illustrates the differences in life satisfaction by age in Northern and Southern Europe. It shows life satisfaction regressed on single years of age in Greece and Italy (representing Southern Europe), and the UK and Denmark (Northern Europe). We fit a linear trend line in each case which shows that, by 2020–2024, life satisfaction was rising with age in these Northern European countries but falling in Southern Europe.
Figure 1 Age-pattern in life satisfaction in Greece, Italy, Denmark, and the UK, 2020–2024
The reason why life satisfaction is now falling with age in Southern Europe is that the young have been getting more satisfied with life. This is illustrated in Figure 2. It shows that in five of these Southern European countries (the exception being Malta), life satisfaction of the young has been rising since around 2015.
Figure 2 Life satisfaction aged under-25 (Eurobarometer)
This is surprising for two reasons. First, most studies around the developed world point to a deterioration in the wellbeing of the young over this period (Blanchflower et al. 2025). Second, although disputed, many argue that one reason for the change is the advent and spread of social media, which has had a particularly adverse effect on the mental health of the young (Twenge 2023, Haidt 2024). Why, then, is life satisfaction rising among the young in Southern European countries? After all, they too experienced the explosion in social media.
One contributory factor is the operation of the labour market, something that has gone under the radar when it comes to the debate about recent changes in mental health. What is distinctive about these Southern European countries is the cyclicality in youth unemployment. When the economy tanks, as it did following the Great Recession of 2008, unemployment rises in many countries, but in these Southern European countries, it rises markedly for the young. In Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, youth unemployment rates peaked in 2015 at over 30% and, in the case of Greece and Spain, at over 50%. But since then, youth unemployment has declined rapidly in these countries (Figure 3). In Greece, for instance, it had more than halved to 22% by 2024. We find that improvements in youth labour markets in Southern Europe since 2015 have positively impacted young people’s life satisfaction.
Figure 3 Annual youth unemployment rates
The study is a timely reminder that the labour market matters for wellbeing and may be more significant in helping to explain changes in age-related patterns than has been appreciated up until now.
Source : VOXeu
