As part of the ongoing US-China trade war, since 2020 the US has restricted the exports of cutting-edge semiconductors from third countries to Huawei. This column analyses the indirect effects of US export regulations on exports of Huawei suppliers in Japan. Although Japan itself did not export cutting-edge semiconductors, exports of affected suppliers declined in […]
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction […]
Escalating geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and volatile policy shifts are reshaping the rules of global commerce and finance and bringing the dominance of the US dollar into question. This column argues that Europe has a historic opportunity to elevate the euro into a trusted global anchor of stability and thus rebalance a global monetary order […]
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered a discussion of whether import tariffs can reduce trade deficits or boost certain industries. This column develops a model, calibrated to the US economy, which illustrates how a uniform import tariff generates both expansionary effects upstream and contractionary effects downstream and is highly inflationary, reflecting its hybrid nature as […]
Many countries are considering introducing or reforming their wealth tax policies. This column studies the effects of a French wealth tax reform, which reduced reporting requirements, on taxpayer behaviour. The scaling back of reporting requirements had large negative effects on tax compliance, with 35% of wealth taxpayers missing in affected brackets and evading 10% of […]
Mothers continue to shoulder the majority of childcare responsibilities even in dual-earner households, contributing to gender gaps in earnings, labour force participation, and career advancement. This column uses an experiment targeting over 80,000 US school principals to show that when a school needs to contact a parent, the mother is 1.4 times more likely than […]
Trade negotiations between the US and the EU are entering a crucial stage. This column argues that, faced with a highly uncertain geopolitical situation, the EU should adopt vis-à-vis the US a negotiating approach compatible with its ambition of enhancing its political autonomy and economic resilience on the one hand, and building international alliances able […]
As social media platforms become ever more ubiquitous, policymakers are grappling with how to counter their effects on political attitudes and electoral outcomes, addiction and mental health, misinformation and toxic content. This column suggests practical ways that academic researchers can help guide the design of government regulations aiming to address these issues. The authors explain […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
As inflation surged globally, economists and policymakers focused their attention on the expectations of households and financial markets – but relatively little was known about the inflation expectations of firms. Using a survey of French firms from 2020 to 2024, this column examines how inflation expectations form, evolve, and affect decisions, as well as their […]
