Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008: an analysis of a new dataset
This paper introduces a new and unique dataset of all United States Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme notifications from 2008 to September 2025. The dataset covers purchasing
Why export controls accelerate innovation: Evidence from the 2007 US ‘China Rule’
A key debate surrounding export controls is whether they accelerate innovation in targeted rivals. This column studies this question using a set of US export
The Great Divergence and the Great Reversal: A new approach to global economic history
The starkly different paths of economic and institutional development followed by China and the West is often attributed largely to the Industrial Revolution. This column
The economic impact of European capital market integration
Economic growth in Europe continues to lag behind that of the US, largely due to smaller productivity gains. This column uses a general equilibrium model
China’s electronics export juggernaut and lessons for the US
In 2021, China’s electronics exports exceeded those of the other five leading exporters combined. This column analyses the rise of China as a centre for
How wage inequality affects the labour movement
The negative correlation between inequality and unionisation rates in the US has been extensively documented, but while the other direction of causality – the impact
The ripple beyond borders: Indirect effects of US export controls on Japanese firms
As part of the ongoing US-China trade war, since 2020 the US has restricted the exports of cutting-edge semiconductors from third countries to Huawei. This
Filtering labour market data optimally to detect recessions early and accurately
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market
Europe must not waste its currency moment
Escalating geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and volatile policy shifts are reshaping the rules of global commerce and finance and bringing the dominance of the US
The making of a supply shock: Tariff propagation via domestic production networks
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered a discussion of whether import tariffs can reduce trade deficits or boost certain industries. This column develops a model,
