When trade sanctions increase the target’s trade
Data show that trade sanctions reduce commerce between the countries imposing them and their targets. But this bilateral success can conceal a wider failure if
A nascent international financial channel of China’s monetary policy transmission
China is the world’s second-largest economy, and its monetary policy can affect global demand and trade. Using granular mutual fund data, this column finds that
When statistics lie: Using satellite data to track Russia’s wartime economy
Official Russian statistics report a mild recession in 2022 following the full-scale of Ukraine but suggest that Russia has since fully recovered. This column argues
The exorbitant privilege of the periodic table
Trade in critical metals essential for electrification has become centred on China over the last three decades. This column introduces a new framework in which
When travel restrictions became trade frictions: Evidence from Covid-era border closures
Covid travel restrictions limited movement of people but also made cross-border goods trade more difficult. This column uses a structural gravity model on global trade
Nvidia CEO joins Trump’s thorny trade mission to China
Trump embarks on the first visit by a U.S. president to China in nearly a decade eager to land some economic wins and prop up
The effects of geopolitical supply chain shocks on policy preferences of firms
Do geopolitical shocks to supply chains make firms retreat from globalisation? Using new survey data from 1,855 manufacturing firms in Japan, this column shows that
Why liquidity evaporates when it is most needed
A common feature of flash crash episodes in financial markets is that liquidity vanishes precisely when it is most needed. This column argues that this
Export bans that weren’t really bans: How Russia kept importing military goods
Despite comprehensive export sanctions from Western allies against Russia, Western components continue to appear in Russian weapons. This column uses transaction-level Russian customs data combined
US tariffs may deepen integration, elsewhere
While recent analysis has focused on direct impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation, major US trading partners have intensified trade negotiations with each other,
