Trade restrictions, trade policy uncertainty and FDI flows
Trade policy has become a major source of macroeconomic risk. The sharp rise in trade restrictions and the growing unpredictability of trade rules are reshaping
The design and effect of tariff retaliation: Evidence from the EU
As global trade policy becomes increasingly protectionist, the threat of tariff retaliation looms large. This column analyses how the EU’s 2018 response to US steel
Taking the pulse of global trade policy
How much has trade policy changed globally? This column introduces the Trade Policy Activity Index, a monthly measure of policy changes across 197 economies since
How do trade restrictiveness and trade policy uncertainty affect FDI? An empirical investigation
Rising trade barriers and uncertainty are choking FDI inflows, hitting low and middle-income investors hardest in a fragmented global economy. In the context of rising
When two AI systems become one: unifying data and knowledge in global trade
Navigating global trade data is often a dual challenge for policymakers and researchers: finding the right numbers is hard, but understanding exactly what those numbers
From openness to vulnerability: Mapping the EU’s foreign dependencies and geopolitical exposure
Recent crises and trade tensions have revealed that EU reliance on foreign suppliers can pose serious risks, especially for essential goods. This column provides a
Trade risk and optimal trade policy: Lessons from food security
Geopolitical shocks and trade disruptions have made imports less reliable, especially for essential goods like food. This column outlines a framework where trade costs are
Don’t swap tariffs for minimum prices on Chinese electric vehicles
One year after the European Union imposed sweeping anti-subsidy duties on battery electric vehicles imported from China, the data tell a story very different from
Tariffs, global imbalances, and the dollar
While the Trump administration has offered multiple justifications for imposing tariffs, none has been as prominently cited as the goal of reducing trade deficits. This
The flawed rationale behind America’s “reciprocal tariffs”
On 2 April 2025, the Trump administration declared a “national emergency” caused by “large and persistent US goods trade deficits” and announced the imposition of
