Different options of what a European architecture for ECAs could look like, and how they could be leveraged to serve European public goods. Export credit agencies (ECAs) play an important role in international trade by providing derisking instruments that function as public assistance to companies engaging in international commerce. As the geopolitical environment has become […]
Depending on how it is measured, China’s economy is now the world’s largest or second largest. It is also the world’s second-most intertwined in terms of trade relationships, after the European Union, and is a major investor and lender in the emerging world. Understanding where China is heading is important for the whole world. This […]
Thailand’s coastal and marine resources are vital engines of growth. From pristine beaches that attract millions of tourists each year to the Eastern Economic Corridor that supports production and trade, the country’s “blue economy” involving 23 coastal provinces is estimated to contribute around 30 percent of Thailand’s GDP and one-fourth of the nation’s employment. As Thailand […]
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
The global economy is facing heightened uncertainty, clouding economic forecasts. In our recently launched April 2025 Middle East and North Africa Economic Update , we report that growth in MENA averaged a modest 1.9% in 2024 and is forecast to accelerate moderately to 2.6% in 2025. But growth forecasts for countries across the region are shadowed in […]
Tariffs disrupt trade flows and influence prices, but their broader impact depends on how they are structured and the type of goods targeted. This column examines the economic implications of tariffs across the supply chain, with a particular focus on how different modes of retaliation to US tariffs impact economic activity, inflation, and trade. The […]
Vikhsit Bharat : This is the ambitious goal India has set itself of becoming a high-income country by 2047. But reaching this goal will require India to grow almost 8 percent on average for the next 22 years. That would mean an acceleration from the 6.6 percent growth per year that India achieved over the last 25 […]
Recent years have seen a global shift towards illiberal forms of governance. Migration is often a central force in these dynamics. This column investigates the two-way interaction between international migration and political regime change. The author shows, first, that substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies can exacerbate institutional weaknesses. Second, democratic decline tends to increase […]
Oil prices held steady on Wednesday after the U.S. barred Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela, but an expected decision from OPEC+ later this week to increase production in July capped gains. Brent crude futures was up 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.15 a barrel by 0852 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 8 […]
President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” announced on 2 April sent shockwaves through the global economy. This column introduces the European Commission’s Spring Forecast, which depicts a resilient EU economy. Yet growth is set to remain modest, reinforcing the image of a continent buffeted by external shocks and mired in low growth. Tariffs, and even more […]
