Vikhsit Bharat : This is the ambitious goal India has set itself of becoming a high-income country by 2047. But reaching this goal will require India to grow almost 8 percent on average for the next 22 years. That would mean an acceleration from the 6.6 percent growth per year that India achieved over the last 25 […]
Recent years have seen a global shift towards illiberal forms of governance. Migration is often a central force in these dynamics. This column investigates the two-way interaction between international migration and political regime change. The author shows, first, that substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies can exacerbate institutional weaknesses. Second, democratic decline tends to increase […]
Oil prices held steady on Wednesday after the U.S. barred Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela, but an expected decision from OPEC+ later this week to increase production in July capped gains. Brent crude futures was up 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.15 a barrel by 0852 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 8 […]
President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” announced on 2 April sent shockwaves through the global economy. This column introduces the European Commission’s Spring Forecast, which depicts a resilient EU economy. Yet growth is set to remain modest, reinforcing the image of a continent buffeted by external shocks and mired in low growth. Tariffs, and even more […]
In recent years, concerns over global financial fragmentation have grown amid rising geopolitical tensions. This column integrates a network structure in a multi-country model with imperfect financial markets to study how currency risk premia are connected to financiers’ risk bearing capacity. Guided by the theory, it constructs a centrality-based characteristic that gives a direct role […]
Rising trade tensions and the pandemic have forced importers to reconfigure their supply chains – a complex and costly process. This column highlights the underappreciated role of financial intermediaries in supporting supply chain resilience during global disruptions. Commercial banks – especially those specialising in Asian trade finance – played a crucial role in helping firms […]
Taiwan’s Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics maker, downgraded its full-year outlook on Wednesday citing recent appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, even as it struck an upbeat note about booming demand for AI servers. Foxconn, Apple’s top iPhone assembler and Nvidia’s AI server maker, has ridden the crest of the wave for artificial intelligence demand, but is […]
The views expressed in the Let’s Talk Development blog are solely those of the author(s). Commodity prices are projected to decline in 2025, driven by improved supplies, policy uncertainty, and an expected slowdown in global economic growth. Energy prices are expected to see the steepest drop, with the World Bank’s energy price index forecast to fall […]
The recent shift in trade policy by the new US administration is impacting global trade and creating volatility in financial markets. This column quantifies the economic impact of the 2nd April tariffs on Europe, discusses the financial market response to the announcement, and looks at the role of the exchange rate response for the transmission […]
Economic sanctions have become an increasingly common instrument of foreign policy, promoted as a non-violent alternative to military intervention. However, their effects on labour markets remain underexplored. This column examines the case of Iran following the unprecedented international sanctions imposed in 2012 to investigate how sudden and extreme shocks to market access affect the allocation […]
