Exchange rate uncertainty, tariff hikes, and adjustment costs

The recent shift in trade policy by the new US administration is impacting global trade and creating volatility in financial markets. This column quantifies the
Roaring tariffs: The global impact of the 2025 US trade war

Sweeping US tariff increases in 2025 are upending global trade. This column draws on new data and simulations to show that, even with partial suspensions,
Tariffs cannot fund the government: Evidence from tariff Laffer curves

Until the late 19th century, states raised most of their government revenues from import tariffs. This column asks whether the practice could work today. A

