Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: Learning from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022
During the past 20 years, the world economy has suffered two major crises in the form of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oil slips as OPEC+ output hikes counter Russia disruption concerns
Trump’s threats come amid renewed concerns about oil demand and some analysts expect faltering economic growth in the second half of the year Oil slipped
Filtering labour market data optimally to detect recessions early and accurately
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market
Sovereign bonds, convenience yields, and the resurgence of supply shocks
Many sovereign bonds trade at a premium for being safe assets that retain their value even in deep recessions. This premium, or ‘convenience yield’, allows
How the EU should plan for global trade transformation
The major turbulence being experienced by the world economy could lead to a global recession and the collapse of the norms and institutions that have
