How real-time data misled policymakers during the post-COVID recovery
Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. This column shows how real-time GDP releases
Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column
The return of inflation: Why ‘look through’ can backfire under incomplete information
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock
Timelines for Change: Timing Issues in Port Reforms
In port reform, timing isn’t just another detail — it represents the difference between a smooth transition and a stalled project. Master plans run for
Reinforced regional integration fosters inclusive growth and human development
Despite years of regional integration efforts, African countries trade more with Europe and Asia than with each other. This column estimates the gap between the
How AI chatbots can improve voter information
Citizens need clear, accessible information to make informed decisions, but today’s digital landscape can be overwhelming. This column tests whether an AI chatbot can ease
Prudential instruments and the recent inflationary episode
Since the Global Crisis, prudential instruments to address financial stability concerns have been enhanced and broadly adopted across countries. Using the recently updated International Banking
Loose monetary policy, dollar depreciation, and debt sustainability: Do not forget Venice
History suggests that using lax monetary policy and a weaker currency to address debt sustainability is a dangerous game. This column revisits a unique early
Europe’s trade surplus, international relative prices, and the productivity growth gap
The euro area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity
Unlocking SME growth: Key lessons from Ecuador’s loan program
Governments and development institutions spend billions to help small businesses access financing, hoping this will create jobs and support inclusive economic growth. But we don’t
