Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock is temporary or persistent, this column shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete. In contrast, a standard Taylor rule prevents an additional demand-driven inflation impulse […]
In port reform, timing isn’t just another detail — it represents the difference between a smooth transition and a stalled project. Master plans run for decades, political cycles run for years, and stakeholder trust is built day by day. Getting the pacing right—what changes happen when, and how fast—is often the hidden determinant of success. […]
Despite years of regional integration efforts, African countries trade more with Europe and Asia than with each other. This column estimates the gap between the current and potential trade efficiency of 45 African exporting countries and their 43 trading partners over the period 1996 to 2020. The findings highlight the existence of untapped trade potential […]
Citizens need clear, accessible information to make informed decisions, but today’s digital landscape can be overwhelming. This column tests whether an AI chatbot can ease election information overload for 1,500 Californian voters. The chatbot reduces the voters’ perception of the effort needed to get more information, increases voter engagement, and improves the accuracy of their […]
Since the Global Crisis, prudential instruments to address financial stability concerns have been enhanced and broadly adopted across countries. Using the recently updated International Banking Research Network Prudential Instrument database, this column shows that by 2023 most of the 64 countries considered have implemented most of the instruments. During the 2021-2023 inflation episode, cyclical prudential […]
History suggests that using lax monetary policy and a weaker currency to address debt sustainability is a dangerous game. This column revisits a unique early experiment with a managed float of state-issued money in Venice between 1619 and 1666. Newly digitised exchange rate data show that even for a government with a strong fiscal reputation, […]
The euro area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity growth differentials relative to the rest of the world are a key driver of Europe’s external surplus. Structural trade shifts, such as declining home bias and falling import prices, have […]
Governments and development institutions spend billions to help small businesses access financing, hoping this will create jobs and support inclusive economic growth. But we don’t really know if these programs reach the firms that need help most and help them grow. In a recent paper, we evaluate a loan program in Ecuador implemented by the state […]
Within minutes of the result of the 2024 US presidential election becoming clear, it triggered a global tremor in currency markets. This column investigates how institutional quality shaped currency responses to the election, using high-frequency exchange rate data for 73 countries. Virtually all currencies depreciated against the dollar immediately following the election result, which markets […]
The current US administration’s approach to financial markets and institutions mixes familiar deregulatory policies with a range of other policies that are largely without precedent. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, catalogues the relevant policy shifts that are likely to affect the financial sector and […]
