Trailing with a margin: Official macro forecasts in EU fiscal surveillance
Budgetary planning in the euro area involves a codified interaction between national governments and the European Commission where economic and fiscal forecasts play a crucial
Reforming international taxation: Balancing profit shifting and investment responses
The global minimum tax represents the most ambitious international effort in decades to curb profit shifting to tax havens. But how much profit shifting actually
Then and now: A look back and ahead at the US federal budget
There is now widespread concern that the US faces an unsustainable fiscal future under current policies. The rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio since 2001 can
Barclays sees no further ECB rate cuts before end-2026 after policy decision
The ECB kept interest rates steady at 2% for the third meeting in a row. Barclays revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s rate
Gold gains on US interest rate expectations
Investors have their eyes on other news, including ADP U.S. employment data and ISM PMIs this week, for indicators that could alter the Fed’s hawkish
When debt perceptions shape fiscal futures
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and
Dutch households spend less of their income on fixed and necessary expenditures
Households with high fixed and necessary expenditures relative to income are more vulnerable to income shocks. This column examines fixed and necessary expenditures for middle-income
Overcoming the middle-income trap: Why institutions matter
Many middle-income countries (MICs) aspire to achieve high-income status, yet only a few succeed. Since 1990, just 34 countries have made this transition. Today, 108 nations
Strengthening governance and trust in AI-based data dissemination with Proof-Carrying Numbers
As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes a new gateway to development data, a quiet but significant risk has emerged. Large language models (LLMs) can now summarize
The impact of interest: How loan rates shape firm investment
Monetary policy moves aggregate investment, but the underlying drivers remain unclear. This column opens the black box with a German firm survey. A one percentage
