Governments and development institutions spend billions to help small businesses access financing, hoping this will create jobs and support inclusive economic growth. But we don’t really know if these programs reach the firms that need help most and help them grow. In a recent paper, we evaluate a loan program in Ecuador implemented by the state […]
Yen sinks, Bank of Japan signals no hurry to resume rate hikes. The dollar headed for its strongest weekly performance in almost three years against other major currencies, maintaining momentum on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners. Some of the currencies of the countries that were […]
How does generative AI affect real workplace productivity? This column reports results from an experiment at the National Bank of Slovakia, where staff were randomly assigned GPT-4o access while completing routine and non-routine tasks. The model improved output quality by up to 44% and cut completion time by 21%, with the largest gains on non-routine, […]
State aid regulation is crucial to ensuring competitiveness in the EU Single Market, but enforcement remains challenging. Non-compliance by member states and foreign subsidies are ongoing concerns; however, detection is difficult. This column proposes an approach to identify suspect cases of hidden state aid recipients using machine learning algorithms. The predictions allow regulators to substantially […]
How should the European Union budget be revamped to meet the pressing collective challenges of climate change, competitiveness, defence, enlargement and response to unforeseen shocks? This Blueprint evaluates the extent to which current spending goes to European public goods and identifies significant misalignments between budget allocations and areas in which EU-level provision offers the greatest […]
The success of ChatGPT has raised fears that the excessive concentration of generative AI technology within one or two leading US companies could reduce market dynamism. This column presents novel empirical evidence which suggests that the supply of AI has been more open than initially expected in various segments of the AI value chain, driving […]
Policy debates around climate change frequently focus on the trade-off between the near-term costs of reducing carbon emissions and the long-term benefits of mitigating climate change. William Nordhaus highlighted the importance of aggregate productivity losses from climate change in shaping this intertemporal trade-off, but estimating these losses is challenging. This column examines both the direct […]
Amid geopolitical shocks, the EU is revisiting its industrial strategy. However, traditional metrics often paint a misleading picture of Europe’s underlying strength. This column uses a new approach to measure the EU’s relative state of technology in different sectors. It shows that although EU manufacturing broadly outperforms the rest of the world in productivity terms, […]
Trade and industrial policies designed to support domestic industries can unintentionally kindle technological progress abroad. This column examines the case of rare earth elements – a group of metals essential to producing batteries, lasers, and other high-tech components. These elements are not only critical to manufacturing at the knowledge frontier; they also have a low […]
Student use of artificial intelligence is reshaping learning and redefining the skills of future workers. This column examines the impact of generative AI tools on academic performance at an Israeli university. Using data from more and less AI-compatible courses, before and after the introduction of ChatGPT, the authors show that AI raises grades – especially […]
