The return of inflation: Why ‘look through’ can backfire under incomplete information
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock
Dollar choppy after Fed decision; pound steady after BoE keeps rates steady
The pound initially edged up after the BoE’s decision, but pared those gains to trade slightly lower on the day at $1.3622. The U.S. dollar
Gold uptrend intact, but due for correction before topping $4,000 in 2026
Spot gold was trading around $3,680 per ounce on Tuesday after hitting a record $3,689.27 earlier in the session. Gold’s stellar rally to successive record
Loose monetary policy, dollar depreciation, and debt sustainability: Do not forget Venice
History suggests that using lax monetary policy and a weaker currency to address debt sustainability is a dangerous game. This column revisits a unique early
The Federal Reserve, the new administration, and the outlook for the economy and monetary policy
The new US administration has made the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking more complicated both because of the elevated uncertainty regarding administration policies and because of
Recent patterns in global risk behaviour in financial markets
Following the US tariff announcements in early April, the US dollar strongly depreciated while US Treasury yields rose. This column zooms in on the April
Explaining firm-level reactions to macro shocks
Understanding differences in firm responses to macroeconomic shocks is key for designing policy actions. This column identifies 67 macro shocks using ‘jump’ days in the
Gender-neutral economics can no longer be the default
Economic research often treats tools such as tariffs, subsides, interest rates, monetary policy, and austerity measures as gender neutral. This column argues that when sex-disaggregated
Under pressure? Central bank independence meets blockchain prediction markets
The independence of monetary authorities from political interference is a foundational principle of modern central banking, and understanding whether threats to this independence affect expectations
The impact of the 2025 US tariff announcements on UK firms
In the first half of 2025, the US and some of its trading partners announced significant changes to import tariffs. This column uses newly designed
