Classifying loans as fixed-rate or floating-rate fails to fully capture their distinct sensitivity to changes in ECB policy rates. This column analyses the maturity of the relevant risk-free rates used to price new loans to see if it affects their short-term interest rate sensitivity. In countries where new loans were priced using shorter-term risk-free rates, […]
Bank lending is a key channel through which monetary policy affects the real economy. This column explores how the effects of monetary policy on credit are shaped by bank specialisation in borrower industries and size categories. Analysing granular loan data reveals that such specialisation is widespread among euro area banks. Moreover, higher specialisation is typically […]
Aussie slides as investors flock to safe-havens, yen strenghtens. The Australian dollar tumbled on Tuesday, while the safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen strengthened as renewed signs of strains in U.S.-China trade relations dented risk sentiment and left investors ducking for cover. Trade and tariffs have been the main focus since dramatic market moves on […]
Fed Chair Powell to address NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. Gold prices jumped to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month and safe-haven demand following renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,132.89 per ounce […]
French political quagmire leaves euro at two-month lows. The yen stabilised on Friday but was still headed for its steepest weekly drop in a year on Friday, as the chances of a near-term rate hike faded, while the euro was rooted near two-month lows by political crisis in France. The yen edged up 0.2% to […]
Annual inflation has plunged from a record high of 38% in September 2023. Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation slowed to 11.7% in September from 12% in August, data from statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Wednesday, a deceleration less than what analysts in a Reuters poll had anticipated. The median forecast was for an easing […]
Central banks rarely speak with one voice. At the Federal Reserve, for instance, each official brings a distinct perspective, and markets parse every speech for hints of where policy is headed. Different views may help make better decisions, but do they also help when explaining those decisions to the public? And what happens when voices […]
UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence to illustrate the importance of fiscal policy in this period. While stabilising and reducing debt has been the primary peacetime fiscal policy objective for most of modern British history, this […]
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock is temporary or persistent, this column shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete. In contrast, a standard Taylor rule prevents an additional demand-driven inflation impulse […]
The pound initially edged up after the BoE’s decision, but pared those gains to trade slightly lower on the day at $1.3622. The U.S. dollar was choppy on Thursday as traders parsed the Federal Reserve’s measured stance on further interest rate cuts, while sterling held steady as the Bank of England kept rates steady and […]
