Pricing cascades: Inflation in a networked economy
The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven
Peering beyond the veil of aggregate bank lending rate dynamics: Insights into credit-level pricing and composition effects
During the recent tightening and easing cycle, the aggregate bank lending rate to firms in the euro area increased by less than the rise in
Stablecoins and the exorbitant privilege of money creation
Payment stablecoins are set to become an important financial instrument. Their impact on the financial system will depend on whether the issuers can purchase assets
Trump’s mortgage-backed bond purchases not moving needle on housing costs
Experts say $200bln bond-buying effort unlikely to significantly lower housing costs. There’s scant evidence so far that U.S. President Donald Trump’s bid to make housing
How the Fed makes decisions: Disagreement, beliefs, and the power of the Chair
Federal Open Market Committee statements typically sound unanimous, but the Committee’s internal debates rarely are. This column analyses historical meeting transcripts to show that policymakers
Forecasting inflation: The sum of the cycles outperforms the whole
Inflation reflects forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to slow-moving structural trends. Yet most forecasting models treat inflation as a single aggregate process.
European stocks fall as traders wait for US jobs data, dollar steady
Oil drops below $60 a barrel for first time in months. European stocks fell in early trading on Tuesday, struggling to make gains as traders
European stocks fall as traders wait for US jobs data, dollar steady
Oil drops below $60 a barrel for first time in months. European stocks fell in early trading on Tuesday, struggling to make gains as traders
Emerging market resilience to risk-off shocks: Good luck, but mostly good policies
Emerging markets used to be hit hard whenever global investors turned nervous. This column analyses how emerging markets have managed output and inflation during global
The granular origins of inflation
Textbook monetary economics views inflation as fundamentally driven by aggregate shocks, such as money supply or policy rates. This column presents empirical evidence that inflation
