Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column analyses more than a million Reuters news articles between 2001 and 2023 to capture supply and demand dynamics in commodity markets. The findings show that text-based indicators of supply and […]
Africa is bracing for a consumer and manufacturing boom. It won’t come with the snap of a finger. The continent must first navigate a gauntlet of challenges from patchy infrastructure and fragmented markets to skills gaps and inconsistent regulation. But the potential is undeniable—and the stakes could hardly be higher. By 2050, the continent’s headcount […]
Within minutes of the result of the 2024 US presidential election becoming clear, it triggered a global tremor in currency markets. This column investigates how institutional quality shaped currency responses to the election, using high-frequency exchange rate data for 73 countries. Virtually all currencies depreciated against the dollar immediately following the election result, which markets […]
A key question in the context of a trade war is whether the burden of tariffs falls on foreign exporters or domestic importers. This column uses a firm-to-firm trade model with search frictions and French export data to study how cost shocks affect buying firms. It finds that while some buyers pay nothing, others face […]
In January 2026, the European Union will require importers of certain carbon-intensive goods to pay for their products’ embodied carbon emissions. The policy, known as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), could raise the cost of exporting these goods to the EU market, potentially affecting the competitiveness of exporters. To help developing countries assess the potential […]
Developing countries invest about $1 billion annually to train millions of aspiring and existing entrepreneurs. While significant, this investment doesn’t fully address the shortage of expertise needed to better support micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) or to design programs to improve their access to finance, markets, and technology. So, what is limiting MSMEs from […]
Investors and policymakers increasingly rely on verbal guidance rather than policy moves. This column examines whether the emotional sentiment of the chair of the Federal Reserve’s voice in press conferences affects the probability of a sudden, significant drop in bank stock prices. A more positive vocal tone by the Fed chair reduces the risk of […]
The Covid-19 pandemic sparked a large and lasting shift to remote work. This column draws on detailed administrative data from a major call centre in Türkiye to show that a permanent shift to fully remote work can expand recruitment and raise productivity without compromising service quality. The transition increased the share of women, including married […]
Imagine your favorite open-air market. Stalls hustle for customers, prices fall, and shoppers win—until one fragile roof gives way and everyone scrambles. Banking is similar. Lean rivalry makes credit cheaper; cut-throat rivalry slashes margins so deeply that lenders may gamble to survive. Finding the sweet spot is not guess-work. A new World Bank working paper – Navigating […]
Although Chinese banks have remained the top lenders to emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), their growth has slowed and their lending patterns have changed since the pandemic. This column shows that while cross-border lending by Chinese banks to their EMDE borrowers was highly correlated with bilateral trade flows between both countries prior to the […]
