The launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 marked a turning point in how firms and investors view generative artificial intelligence. This column measures the extent and tone of firms’ discussions of GenAI in earnings calls, and finds that early engagement with AI topics boosted stock market performance beyond the immediate impact on expected earnings. The […]
Economic growth in Europe continues to lag behind that of the US, largely due to smaller productivity gains. This column uses a general equilibrium model to show that a more integrated capital market in Europe could strengthen investment by reducing the cost of capital (price effect) and encouraging the entry of investors more inclined to […]
Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and international financial fragmentation. This column argues that hedging is a rational response to recent fluctuations in the US dollar, as investors look to insure against exchange rate risks. However, widespread hedging itself makes Treasuries less […]
The euro area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity growth differentials relative to the rest of the world are a key driver of Europe’s external surplus. Structural trade shifts, such as declining home bias and falling import prices, have […]
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a critical role in the world economy. Global FDI flows averaged almost $2 trillion per year during the past decade, up to one-half of which have been directed to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) in recent years (figure 1.A). FDI inflows are an important source of private capital, especially for […]
Effectively suspended since the onset of the Covid pandemic, the EU fiscal rules were set to make a comeback in 2024. At the same time, the EU was pushing for a major and swift overhaul of its fiscal framework. This column describes how, caught between freedom and responsibility of the transition phase, countries with a […]
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association with a weaker dollar, appears to be the right way for the US to improve its trade balance. In addition, the US should pursue an outcome in which there is […]
As the global economy continues to adapt to macroeconomic shifts, infrastructure investment remains a critical driver of job creation, long-term development opportunities and resilience. While recent interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures have reshaped return expectations and complicated financing conditions, infrastructure has stood firm as a preferred asset class. With relatively stable revenues and strong government […]
Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have made in terms of lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This column proposes a method to embed those efficiency gains into existing productivity measures. For traditional (small) estimates of the cost of […]
During the past 20 years, the world economy has suffered two major crises in the form of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. This column identifies the turning points of recessions and expansions in 101 advanced and developing economies between 1990 and 2022 and analyses the drivers of economic recovery. Across the sample, […]
