Trump’s tariffs as fiscal folly
In 2025, the US government underwent a large fiscal switch, with Congress enacting large income tax cuts and the second Trump administration putting new tariffs
What corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally
The launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 marked a turning point in how firms and investors view generative artificial intelligence. This column measures the extent
The economic impact of European capital market integration
Economic growth in Europe continues to lag behind that of the US, largely due to smaller productivity gains. This column uses a general equilibrium model
Ripples presaging a financial tsunami
Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and international financial fragmentation. This column
Europe’s trade surplus, international relative prices, and the productivity growth gap
The euro area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity
A Three-Pronged Strategy Can Help Developing Economies Attract FDI and Unlock its Full Potential
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a critical role in the world economy. Global FDI flows averaged almost $2 trillion per year during the past decade, up
Dangling fiscal surveillance: EU fiscal policies in 2024
Effectively suspended since the onset of the Covid pandemic, the EU fiscal rules were set to make a comeback in 2024. At the same time,
How Donald Trump should have tackled the US trade deficit
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association
Private capital for infrastructure: Resilience amid uncertainty, urgency amid gaps
As the global economy continues to adapt to macroeconomic shifts, infrastructure investment remains a critical driver of job creation, long-term development opportunities and resilience. While recent
Adjusting productivity for carbon emissions: A new perspective on the growth slowdown
Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have
