The major turbulence being experienced by the world economy could lead to a global recession and the collapse of the norms and institutions that have been critical for stability and economic development since the Second World War. In particular, the United States has adopted a level of tariff protection last seen in the 1930s and […]
In recent years, concerns over global financial fragmentation have grown amid rising geopolitical tensions. This column integrates a network structure in a multi-country model with imperfect financial markets to study how currency risk premia are connected to financiers’ risk bearing capacity. Guided by the theory, it constructs a centrality-based characteristic that gives a direct role […]
Pseudo-wealth is a perception of wealth that is not backed by real economic resources. When people have widely different beliefs, they create ‘wealth’ through betting. This column describes how this perceived wealth can rapidly inflate or deflate without changing real economic fundamentals, leading to volatility in spending and potential economic instability. It raises the question […]
The recent global rise in prices has renewed interest in the distributional effects of the Fisherian debt-inflation channel, and its impact on firms’ activities. This column examines this channel using a novel high-frequency identification strategy that analyses firms’ stock market returns around inflation announcement dates. It finds that, following positive inflation surprises, firms with higher […]
Safe assets are the building blocks of modern financial markets. This column examines the sectoral dynamics of safe assets across advanced economies since the 1980s. It shows that foreign demand for these assets has steadily increased, with the financial sector playing a key role in meeting it. However, because financial institutions often back the safe […]
The long-term effects of artificial intelligence are still unknown, as productivity benefits may be compromised by unintended costs. This column assesses the local effects of shocks to AI job postings on municipal capital markets. It finds that increases in postings are linked to declines in municipal bond yields, particularly for riskier and longer-term bonds. Furthermore, […]
Consumers have vastly different views about inflation – shaped by personal experience, financial literacy, and exposure to economic news. This column examines how consumers’ housing status shapes the attention they pay to inflation and their subsequent spending decisions, demonstrating marked differences between renters and homeowners. In an experiment conducted with US households between 2021 and […]
