Global economy set for 2.7% growth; trade tensions cloud outlook
Policymakers face an increasingly complex inflation landscape, where supply risks call for a more coordinated and forward-looking approach. Global economic output is forecast to grow
Post-pandemic trends in extreme poverty around the world
Years of shocks and imbalanced recoveries have significantly impacted longstanding global poverty trends. In just the last five years, the economic pressures induced by the crises of
Bank recapitalisation versus firm support: A fiscal criterion for crisis policy
Governments routinely invest in private firms. This column argues that these investments have powerful effects on an economy’s crisis resilience, and that those effects depend
Trailing with a margin: Official macro forecasts in EU fiscal surveillance
Budgetary planning in the euro area involves a codified interaction between national governments and the European Commission where economic and fiscal forecasts play a crucial
The granular origins of inflation
Textbook monetary economics views inflation as fundamentally driven by aggregate shocks, such as money supply or policy rates. This column presents empirical evidence that inflation
When loss strikes twice: Health shocks and household financial distress
While many advanced economies shield their citizens from the most severe direct medical costs of illness, less is known about how households cope with income
Beyond military sales: The market premium on dual-use research and development
The sharp rise in European defence spending – driven by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Trump’s re-election and the weakening of US security guarantees,
Public money, private innovation: How government funding built – and sustains – America’s technological leadership
The US has long been the world’s innovation powerhouse, based on a system that combines public funding with private initiative. Yet this model is under
Trump’s tariffs as fiscal folly
In 2025, the US government underwent a large fiscal switch, with Congress enacting large income tax cuts and the second Trump administration putting new tariffs
What corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally
The launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 marked a turning point in how firms and investors view generative artificial intelligence. This column measures the extent
