Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks: The rise of state-dependent pricing
Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or
Europe’s public finances in a warming world
Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances
Pricing cascades: Inflation in a networked economy
The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven
New evidence on the resilience benefit of borrower-based measures when interest rates go up
Borrower-based macroprudential measures are meant to provide a guardrail to counter an erosion of lending standards over time. This column explores whether such measures can
Global economy set for 2.7% growth; trade tensions cloud outlook
Policymakers face an increasingly complex inflation landscape, where supply risks call for a more coordinated and forward-looking approach. Global economic output is forecast to grow
Post-pandemic trends in extreme poverty around the world
Years of shocks and imbalanced recoveries have significantly impacted longstanding global poverty trends. In just the last five years, the economic pressures induced by the crises of
Bank recapitalisation versus firm support: A fiscal criterion for crisis policy
Governments routinely invest in private firms. This column argues that these investments have powerful effects on an economy’s crisis resilience, and that those effects depend
Trailing with a margin: Official macro forecasts in EU fiscal surveillance
Budgetary planning in the euro area involves a codified interaction between national governments and the European Commission where economic and fiscal forecasts play a crucial
The granular origins of inflation
Textbook monetary economics views inflation as fundamentally driven by aggregate shocks, such as money supply or policy rates. This column presents empirical evidence that inflation
When loss strikes twice: Health shocks and household financial distress
While many advanced economies shield their citizens from the most severe direct medical costs of illness, less is known about how households cope with income
