Markets pricing in Fed rate cuts for both October and December. The U.S. dollar slipped against a basket of peers on Wednesday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered bets on a series of rate cuts in coming months, while a broader improvement in risk sentiment took the shine off the greenback. Francesco […]
Fed Chair Powell to address NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. Gold prices jumped to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month and safe-haven demand following renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,132.89 per ounce […]
With working-age populations projected to decline rapidly, all European countries face an unprecedented demographic challenge. Inflows of regular foreign workers are thus key to support employment and growth. This column argues that Italy, where the demographic decline is particularly sharp, has a lot to learn from its neighbours to make its migration policies more effective […]
Sterling traded at $1.3545, slipping 0.2% after data showed the British economy stagnated in July. The dollar inched higher on Friday after falling the day before as a surge in U.S. jobless claims and a modest tick up in inflation kept investors zeroed in on likely Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week and beyond. […]
Workers often remain in their jobs even when they know they may get higher wages elsewhere, raising questions about the effectiveness of pay transparency laws. This column draws on a large German survey to examine how information frictions shape labour market outcomes. The findings suggest that workers are better informed than many policymakers assume, but […]
The euro was up less than 0.1% at $1.1652, while sterling was flat at $1.3462. The U.S. dollar was little changed on Monday before Tuesday’s deadline for Washington and Beijing to strike a tariff deal and a key U.S. inflation report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs next month. The […]
China’s yuan was flat at 7.195 per dollar in offshore trading. Currency markets were in a holding pattern on Tuesday, with traders’ reluctance to make large bets ahead of U.S. inflation data – important for Federal Reserve policy expectations – capping moves after UK jobs data and an Australian rate cut. A moderate reading on […]
Combining product and capital market reforms at EU level with labour market and social policies at national level would be desirable, particularly within the euro area. The Lisbon Agenda has failed to deliver this coordination. The best policy strategy would be for the EU to go back to basics and focus all efforts on completing […]
The most economically prosperous and gender-equal societies often display stronger gender segregation in educational choices – a pattern known as the ‘gender equality paradox’. This column explores this paradox using data on half a million children in 37 Western countries and 10,000 British families over two decades. The findings suggest that gender segregation in education […]
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction […]
