Inflation targeting: Its current state and key challenges
Inflation targeting has emerged as the dominant monetary policy framework in advanced and emerging market economies. This column discusses three main challenges faced by inflation-targeting
The making of a supply shock: Tariff propagation via domestic production networks
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered a discussion of whether import tariffs can reduce trade deficits or boost certain industries. This column develops a model,
Households’ subjective expectations: Disagreement, common drivers, and reaction to aggregate shocks
Understanding how households interpret macroeconomic policy is vital to the effectiveness of central banks. This column demonstrates that the reactions of individual households frequently contradict
Understanding country income: World Bank Group income classifications for FY26 (July 1, 2025–June, 2026)
Every year, the World Bank Group classifies the world’s economies into four income groups: low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high. These classifications, updated each year on July
The rise and retreat of US inflation: An update
During the pandemic, annual CPI inflation in the US rose sharply to a peak of 9% in June 2022. This column argues that the rise
The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: A preliminary assessment
The world is adjusting to President Trump’s second ‘first hundred days’ in office. This column introduces a new CEPR eBook in which over 50 experts
Quantifying global debt risks amid high and rising public debt
As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and
The Great Wall of Chinese goods: The effect of tariff-induced re-rerouting on euro area consumer prices
Tariffs affect both supply and demand, possibly with contrasting effects on prices. This column shows that renewed US-China tensions could redirect Chinese exports to the
Anatomy of the Phillips curve
The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and real economic activity over the business cycle. This column challenges the notion that the Phillips curve
Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA
The global economy is facing heightened uncertainty, clouding economic forecasts. In our recently launched April 2025 Middle East and North Africa Economic Update , we report that
