“If we were to extract that kind of boost of growth that would be very significant for the world,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. Booming investment in artificial intelligence, concentrated mostly in the U.S., could contribute between 0.1% and 0.8% to global growth, but […]
Geopolitical risks impact firms on both sides of the Atlantic. While the short-term outlook is better than expected, there remains huge uncertainty related to the nature and extent of more permanent geopolitical shifts and breaks. This column reports findings from the EIB Investment Survey 2025, which show that EU and US firms continue to invest, […]
Europe faces slowing growth, ageing populations, and structural shifts. This column discusses how organisational economics can illuminate the impact of structural forces on Europe and assist in the design of policies to promote productivity and growth. Demographic change is among the most consequential challenges for European governments, and its impact hinges on organisational choices regarding […]
A race is raging among global powers to secure access to critical minerals to power the simultaneous energy and digital transitions the world is experiencing. The extraordinary growth in demand for critical minerals is putting upward pressure on prices and stimulating new critical mineral discoveries all around the world. However, in developing countries, this new […]
WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%. Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 […]
The EU faces ageing-driven fiscal strain, slower growth and rising pension costs, making employment-focused migration increasingly vital. The European Union population is ageing increasingly rapidly, with dependency ratios and shares of the elderly in the total population rising across the continent. While aggregate projected increases in age-related public spending in the EU are manageable, there are substantial differences […]
Economic growth in Europe continues to lag behind that of the US, largely due to smaller productivity gains. This column uses a general equilibrium model to show that a more integrated capital market in Europe could strengthen investment by reducing the cost of capital (price effect) and encouraging the entry of investors more inclined to […]
Despite years of regional integration efforts, African countries trade more with Europe and Asia than with each other. This column estimates the gap between the current and potential trade efficiency of 45 African exporting countries and their 43 trading partners over the period 1996 to 2020. The findings highlight the existence of untapped trade potential […]
China’s yuan was flat at 7.195 per dollar in offshore trading. Currency markets were in a holding pattern on Tuesday, with traders’ reluctance to make large bets ahead of U.S. inflation data – important for Federal Reserve policy expectations – capping moves after UK jobs data and an Australian rate cut. A moderate reading on […]
Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have made in terms of lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This column proposes a method to embed those efficiency gains into existing productivity measures. For traditional (small) estimates of the cost of […]
