Fool’s gold: How geopolitical risk is taking some of the shine off the US dollar
US Treasuries remain the world’s dominant reserve asset, but geopolitical risks can change how central banks assess the trade-off between liquidity and protection from foreign
Financial engineering is no substitute for interest rates: Lessons from Türkiye
The Turkish central bank cut interest rates over 2021-2023, on the politically driven view that higher rates cause inflation. This column analyses the policies used
Anatomy of a supervisory failure
For its entire 15-year life as a regional bank until its collapse in 2023, Silicon Valley Bank held the same risky bet. This column argues
When trade sanctions increase the target’s trade
Data show that trade sanctions reduce commerce between the countries imposing them and their targets. But this bilateral success can conceal a wider failure if
When statistics lie: Using satellite data to track Russia’s wartime economy
Official Russian statistics report a mild recession in 2022 following the full-scale of Ukraine but suggest that Russia has since fully recovered. This column argues
Commodity wealth demands a fiscal balancing act
Commodity booms are easy to celebrate but hard to manage. For resource-rich economies, commodity windfalls—if managed well—can finance investment, strengthen public finances and lift growth
How the rise of AI matters for fiscal policy
Predictions of the effects of AI on the economy and society tend to focus on productivity growth, job losses, and shifts in the distribution of
Safe debt financing: International spillovers and the benefits of fiscal policy coordination
Safe government bonds enjoy a discount known as the convenience yield. When a government issues more debt, it erodes this discount for itself and for
When the news you watch shapes the inflation you expect
Central banks lean on communication to anchor inflation expectations. But most households learn about the economy from the news rather than from policy statements, and
Rethinking the use of quantitative easing for macro stimulus
Quantitative easing has faced recent criticism for causing large central bank losses and contributing to the post-COVID inflation, raising the question of under what conditions
