When trade sanctions increase the target’s trade
Data show that trade sanctions reduce commerce between the countries imposing them and their targets. But this bilateral success can conceal a wider failure if
When statistics lie: Using satellite data to track Russia’s wartime economy
Official Russian statistics report a mild recession in 2022 following the full-scale of Ukraine but suggest that Russia has since fully recovered. This column argues
Commodity wealth demands a fiscal balancing act
Commodity booms are easy to celebrate but hard to manage. For resource-rich economies, commodity windfalls—if managed well—can finance investment, strengthen public finances and lift growth
How the rise of AI matters for fiscal policy
Predictions of the effects of AI on the economy and society tend to focus on productivity growth, job losses, and shifts in the distribution of
Safe debt financing: International spillovers and the benefits of fiscal policy coordination
Safe government bonds enjoy a discount known as the convenience yield. When a government issues more debt, it erodes this discount for itself and for
When the news you watch shapes the inflation you expect
Central banks lean on communication to anchor inflation expectations. But most households learn about the economy from the news rather than from policy statements, and
Rethinking the use of quantitative easing for macro stimulus
Quantitative easing has faced recent criticism for causing large central bank losses and contributing to the post-COVID inflation, raising the question of under what conditions
Dividend tax reforms: Why design shapes revenue and measured inequality
Governments increasingly look to capital income for both revenue and redistribution. This column compares two dividend tax reforms in Israel – a permanent rate increase
Debt service and fiscal sustainability
Debt sustainability analysis typically focuses on debt stocks and the interest rate-growth rate differential, but these are not perfect predictors of fiscal stress. This column
Technology adoption and labour shortages: Evidence from Britain’s Industrial Revolution
As populations in rich countries age and fewer youngsters enter the labour force, employers and politicians bemoan labour ‘shortages’. This column turns to historical evidence
