Changes in the health and longevity of the elderly in the US
Spending on public pensions through Social Security and on elderly healthcare through Medicare accounted for over one-third of federal expenditures in the US by 2024.
Taming original sin redux: The role of benchmark-driven flows
Emerging market capital flows remain highly sensitive to global shocks. This column analyses foreign investors in emerging market local-currency sovereign bonds depending on whether they
Never let a good crisis go to waste: Term limits and banking reforms
Financial crises routinely trigger sweeping overhauls of financial regulation, but whose interests do these reforms serve? Using data on financial policies in 88 democracies between
Fiscal consolidation: Temporary costs versus lasting scars
Public debt is at or near record highs across the OECD, increasing the pressure on governments to restore fiscal sustainability over time. This column draws
Rising debt, shrinking buffers: The fiscal challenge facing commodity exporters
For commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), recent years have delivered something more unsettling than the usual commodity cycle of boom and bust. Overlapping
Detecting institutional change as it unfolds: Evidence from 120 years of reporting
Explaining comparative economic development requires identifying the causes of institutional change. This column uses AI to analyse 120 years of newspaper coverage and produce a
Ahead of a presidential election, France first needs to help itself on debt
When could market stress justify European Central Bank intervention over French debt and what must France do first for such support to be defensible? After
Fiscal populism and monetary policy rules
Populism may not only have contemporary but also long-term effects on the macroeconomy. Using data for advanced economies and emerging markets since 1960, this column
Strategic sovereignty, social movements, and political agency: Evidence from the US-Israeli military campaign in Iran
Military intervention may be undertaken to weaken a hostile regime and strengthen the position of its opponents. This column argues that evidence from the 2026
Global imbalances and the China challenge
China’s trade surplus is widening, its manufactured exports are surging, and the political backlash is intensifying. This column argues that the widening trade surplus reflects
