The first four months of the year have been turbulent for oil markets. Brent crude oil plunged by more than $12 per barrel ($/bbl) in the four trading days following April 2. This marked the 11th-worst four-trading-day price performance since 1990 and was accompanied by a 50 percent surge in anticipated oil price volatility. Brent […]
The views expressed in the Let’s Talk Development blog are solely those of the author(s). Commodity prices are projected to decline in 2025, driven by improved supplies, policy uncertainty, and an expected slowdown in global economic growth. Energy prices are expected to see the steepest drop, with the World Bank’s energy price index forecast to fall […]
Recent tariff measures by the US and countermeasures by its trading partners have dominated global policy debates. Using three economic models, this column shows how the tariffs impact trade flows, output, and welfare, especially in North America and China. In the short term, tariffs act as negative supply shocks for tariffing countries (depressing output while […]
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said China, France, and Germany were the largest contributors to the global debt increase, while debt levels declined in Canada, the UAE, and Turkey Global debt rose by around $7.5 trillion in the first three months of the year to hit a record high of over $324 trillion, data […]
Dubai’s Emirates airline on Thursday reported a record full-year profit, boosted by strong international travel demand on major routes. The results underscore a sustained rebound in global air travel, with Emirates benefiting from a surge in demand across Asia, Europe and the Middle East. The airline, among the world’s largest by international capacity, has added […]
The world is facing a longstanding global learning and skills crisis. Over half of 10-year-olds in low- and middle-income countries cannot read and understand an age-appropriate text, and 87 percent of them are in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2024, 251 million children and young people were out of school, and as of 2023, 468 million lived in a conflict zone […]
The United States is seeking to weaken a global deal aimed at helping developing countries struggling with the impacts of climate change and other issues, an internal United Nations document seen by Reuters showed. The Trump administration opposes draft reforms of the world’s financial system intended to help developing countries, including around taxation, credit ratings […]
Sweeping US tariff increases in 2025 are upending global trade. This column draws on new data and simulations to show that, even with partial suspensions, the measures are set to trigger sharp contractions in trade, significant welfare losses (especially for the US), and major disruptions to global supply chains. Direct trade between the US and […]
In the past decade, China has become the largest creditor to developing countries, surpassing the IMF, World Bank, and Paris Club countries. This column discusses how China’s overseas lending interacts with US monetary policy – another key driver of the global financial cycle. It finds that Chinese and US policies jointly influence the level and […]
Global housing markets have come under scrutiny for a number of concerns, including affordability, homelessness, and the contribution of housing to growing inequality. This column introduces a conceptual framework that integrates the consumption, capital, and locational aspects of housing to highlight how housing both reflects and drives inequality. The authors suggest numerous areas in which […]
