Taking the pulse of global trade policy
How much has trade policy changed globally? This column introduces the Trade Policy Activity Index, a monthly measure of policy changes across 197 economies since
When oil is scarce and debt is binding: policy sequencing under a severe energy supply shock
With inflation still binding and fiscal space thin, the 2026 Iran shock revives the case for pre-committed, conditional yield anchors with clear exit. The 2026
Defragmenting European Union climate policy
Simplification without carbon price convergence risks deeper fragmentation, higher costs and weaker credibility for the EU’s climate target. Executive summary There is broad agreement that the European
Demystifying trade patterns in a fragmenting world
It has been argued that ‘connector’ countries can benefit from trade tensions by bridging the gap between trade blocs. This column examines trade flows of
Navigating the 2022 inflation surge: Lessons for monetary policy frameworks
The 2022 global inflation surge tested inflation-targeting frameworks under severe supply shocks. This column shows that, despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks
Decoupling without deglobalisation: The new geography of trade blocs
As geopolitical tensions rise, fears of deglobalisation have taken centre stage. However, world trade has remained surprisingly resilient, at least through 2023. This column uses
From battlefield to market: How disruptions in Ukraine affected grain price trends
Commodity price spikes at the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine contributed significantly to global inflation in 2022-23, which caught many policymakers off guard
Why globalisation needs a leader: Hegemons, alignment, and trade
There is a growing concern that tensions between China and the US may lead to an unravelling of globalisation. This column discusses how rivalry between
