Brexit migration shifts: Benchmarking the UK to Germany
Brexit has been one of the most consequential institutional shocks to a major European economy in recent decades. This column examines how Brexit reshaped the
Then and now: A look back and ahead at the US federal budget
There is now widespread concern that the US faces an unsustainable fiscal future under current policies. The rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio since 2001 can
When debt perceptions shape fiscal futures
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and
The hidden cycle: How informality shapes fiscal policy and sovereign default
The informal sector tends to expand during economic downturns and contract in recoveries, and is also highly sensitive to fiscal policy. This column explores the
Speaking of debt: Framing, guilt, and economic choices
In many Germanic languages, the word for ‘debt’ also means ‘guilt’. This column explores whether the linguistic overlap leads to greater debt aversion in Germany,
25% inflation, 50 years on
UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence
Dollar firm as geopolitics heat up; investors await US inflation data
The data did not offer much insight into job creation since March, leaving U.S. rate expectations unchanged for now. The dollar held steady on Wednesday
