WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%. Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 […]
Wall Street’s main indexes advanced on Monday following Friday’s pullback, as investors returned to risk assets after President Donald Trump’s softer tone eased concerns over renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. Aiding sentiment, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday that Trump was on track to meet his Chinese counterpart in […]
WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%. Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 […]
COVID-19 hit low-income exporters hard, exposing risks from weak diversification and straining trade, supply systems and financial stability. The COVID-19 pandemic sent shockwaves through global supply chains as borders closed, lockdowns went into effect and demand plummeted. This shock was felt particularly by low and lower-middle income countries with economies reliant on a limited set […]
China is on track to meet global green-tech demand but needs to pivot from manufacturing to infrastructure. China is crucial role to the world’s green transition for two contrasting reasons: it is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter – over 30 percent of the global total – and it is the world’s largest producer of […]
In 2021, China’s electronics exports exceeded those of the other five leading exporters combined. This column analyses the rise of China as a centre for electronics manufacturing. It argues that the key drivers of growth were intense competition, education that facilitated technology transfer, and infrastructure development. However, China’s nonlinear innovation model also leaves it dependent […]
Export booms can boost formal job growth and lead to greener employment. In Brazil, between 2000 and 2020, municipalities more exposed to exports showed higher employment growth. A 1% increase in exports led to a 0.4% increase in formal jobs three years later. While environmentally risky jobs tend to rise more rapidly in the short run, […]
Trade with China displaced large parts of the American workforce in the 2000s, but Germany did not experience a similar shock at the time. This column argues that the ‘China shock’ has hit the German economy since 2020, particularly in its core automobile and machinery sectors. To avoid America’s painful de-industrialisation of the 2000s, Chinese […]
As global trade expands, so does the number of workers in high-income countries whose jobs are tied to exports. More of that growth is generated by exports to low-and middle-income countries than to other high-income countries. Employment generated by exports of goods and services to low and middle-income countries, either directly or indirectly, more than doubled […]
In 2018 and 2019, the US administration hiked tariffs on imports from China. This column shows that imports from Mexico partly filled the gap, leading to an export and employment surge in Mexico. Using highly disaggregated firm-level data on Mexican exports, combined with detailed employer-employee data, the authors find that US tariffs against China resulted […]
