Quantifying the China discourse
Policy narratives in the US on China have undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years. This column draws on various kinds of public records and
AI feedback loops and the conditions for explosive growth
If frontier AI models can be used to develop their next models, this may lead to an ‘intelligence explosion’ and give a large boost to
Japan’s productivity transformation: From within-firm stagnation to market-driven reallocation
Discussions on Japan’s ‘lost decades’ have long focused on sluggish demand and the survival of ‘zombie’ firms. However, new evidence from microdata suggests a fundamental
Baby busts and GDP booms: Demographic change and the macroeconomy
Globally declining birth rates have, over the last seven decades, slowed population growth and raised average ages. This column argues that despite widespread economic pessimism,
Rethinking the use of quantitative easing for macro stimulus
Quantitative easing has faced recent criticism for causing large central bank losses and contributing to the post-COVID inflation, raising the question of under what conditions
The AI premium
Artificial intelligence is already reshaping the economy and society. This column analyses how AI affects firms, markets, and workers using 380 trillion tokens of realised
IMF strategy chief urges countries to maintain price stability
Christian Mumssen, the fund’s new director of strategy, cited a rapid succession of major shocks to the economy in recent years. The International Monetary Fund’s
IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, sees rebound in 2027
IMF raises headline inflation forecast to 4.7% for 2026. The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday inched its 2026 global growth forecast lower again to a
Shared prosperity constitutes both income growth and inequality reduction
The vision of the World Bank is to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity on a livable planet. The number of people who live in extreme poverty — i.e.,
The economic footprint of Europe’s defence build-up
Defence policy is usually discussed as a national security issue, but its economic effects are often highly local. This column presents new evidence from 1,011
